安徽阜阳夏季极端高温趋势分析与风险评估  

Trend Analysis and Risk Evaluation of Summer Extreme Heat in Fuyang,Anhui Province

作　　者：张思超 吴凌云[2] 戴秋丹 路传彬 程雪青 钱斌瑶 邸秀秀 姜青山 杨占梅 ZHANG Sichao;WU Lingyun;DAI Qiudan;LU Chuanbin;CHENG Xueqing;QIAN Binyao;DI Xiuxiu;JIANG Qingshan;YANG Zhanmei(Fuyang Meteorological Office,Fuyang,Anhui Province 236000;State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;School of Resources and Environment,Hunan University of Technology and Business,Changsha 410205)

机构地区：[1]安徽省阜阳市气象局,安徽阜阳236000 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京100029 [3]湖南工商大学资源环境学院,长沙410205

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2024年第2期145-154,共10页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：安徽省气象创新专项基金项目ahqxcx2023-22;国家重大科技基础设施项目“地球系统数值模拟装置”。

摘　　要：基于1970~2022年安徽阜阳5个观测站点的资料,利用热指数对阜阳夏季极端高温进行了分析,并对阜阳高温风险及人口暴露度进行了评估。结果显示:阜阳高温日数呈增加趋势,大约为1.33 d/10 a,相应的热指数也呈增加趋势。热指数的增长趋势在周末两天明显低于周一到周五的工作日,这种周末效应在14:00(北京时间)表现得最为明显。阜阳夏季的高温低风险天数以0.85 d/10 a降低,而中风险天数以1.42 d/10 a增加,即正从低风险向中风险转变。2005~2022年阜阳的高温人口暴露度是1978~2000年的2倍多,其中人口因素贡献为17.32%,气候因素贡献为75.06%,人口和气候因素共同贡献了7.62%。Herein,extreme heat was analyzed,and risk days of extreme heat and population exposure were evaluated using a heat index based on data from five observation stations in Fuyang,Anhui Province,China,during the summer of 1970–2022.The results show that extremely hot days exhibited an increasing trend of 1.33 d/10 a and the heat index also showed a growing trend.The increasing trends demonstrated by the heat index on weekends were obviously lower than those on weekdays,with the highest value observed at 1400 LST.Further analysis reveals that low-risk days of extreme heat in Fuyang during the summer of 1970–2022 showed a decreasing trend of 0.85 d/10 a.Meanwhile,the number of middle-risk days of extreme heat increased by 1.42 d/10 a.This shift indicates that extreme heat in summer over Fuyang changed from low risk to middle risk.Compared with the 1978–2000 base period,population exposure to extreme heat more than doubled during 2005–2022.It is showed that the climate factor contributed 75.06%to changes in population exposure,followed by the population factor(17.32%)and the interaction effect of population and climate(7.62%).

关 键 词：阜阳 极端高温 热指数 周末效应 人口暴露度 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]