基于青藏高原和印度洋区域热力状况的气候预测先兆信号  

Precursor Signals for Climate Prediction Based on Thermal Conditions of the Tibetan Plateau and Indian Ocean

作　　者：肖子牛[1] 李张群 赵亮[1] 陈红[2] 冯蓉 XIAO Ziniu;LI Zhangqun;ZHAO Liang;CHEN Hong;FENG Rong(State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029;International Center for Climate and Environment Sciences,Institute of Atmospheric Physics,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点室验室,北京100029 [2]中国科学院大气物理研究所国际气候与环境科学中心,北京100029

出　　处：《气候与环境研究》2024年第2期216-228,共13页Climatic and Environmental Research

基　　金：中国科学院战略性先导科技专项XDA20060501;国家自然科学基金项目91937000。

摘　　要：围绕青藏高原和印度洋区域热力状况对南亚季风、水汽输送和区域气候的影响,本文梳理总结了相关研究进展,重点聚焦在青藏高原和印度洋区域热力状况和热力差异与季风活动、水汽输送等重要气候指标的联系,并据此提出了印度洋和高原区域在次季节、季节尺度的气候预测指标和方法。对认识青藏高原和印度洋区域热力状况对气候的影响,改善该区域气候预测的能力具有参考意义。In this paper,we summarize the research progress on the influence of thermal conditions over the Tibetan Plateau and the Indian Ocean on the South Asian monsoon,water vapor transportation,and regional climate.This review focuses on the link between thermal conditions over the Tibetan Plateau and the Indian Ocean as well as Tibetan Plateau–Indian Ocean thermal differences with important climate indicators,such as monsoon activity,water vapor transport,and so on.Moreover,indicators and methods for measuring the climate prediction at subseasonal and seasonal time scales in the Indian Ocean and Tibetan Plateau regions are proposed based on the above aspects.It will be beneficial for understanding the impact of thermal conditions on the climate in the Tibetan Plateau and Indian Ocean regions,and improving the capability of regional climate prediction.

关 键 词：青藏高原 印度洋 热力状况 南亚季风 气候预测 

分 类 号：P461.2[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]