人工智能技术创新对区域碳排放的影响——机制识别与回弹效应  

The Impact of Artificial Intelligence Technology Innovation on Regional Carbon Emissions:Mechanism Identification and Rebound Effect

作　　者：孙振清[1] 杨锐 Sun Zhenqing;Yang Rui(Tianjin University of Science and Technology,Tianjin 300457,China)

机构地区：[1]天津科技大学经济与管理学院,天津300457

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2024年第5期168-177,共10页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“优化开发区域率先实现碳排放峰值目标路径研究”(16AGL002);天津市高等学校创新团队培养计划项目“绿色发展理念与创新产品设计”(TD13-5012/5045)。

摘　　要：基于2011—2021年中国省份面板数据,多维度实证检验人工智能技术创新对区域碳排放的影响。结果显示,人工智能技术创新显著降低了碳排放强度,这一结论在进行一系列内生性、稳健性检验后仍然成立。机制分析表明,人工智能技术创新主要通过改进能源效率间接促进碳减排,产业结构高级化、市场化水平与要素资源错配水平是影响人工智能技术创新能效提升的关键因素。区域异质性分析表明,人工智能技术创新仅在东部地区对碳排放产生了显著的抑制作用,中西部地区并未产生明显的碳减排效应,反而加速了西部地区的碳排放。空间计量分析表明,人工智能技术创新不仅可以降低本地碳排放强度,还可以降低邻近地区的碳排放强度,有助于形成区域绿色创新协调发展的空间格局。另外,人工智能技术创新对碳排放的影响也存在着明显的回弹效应。研究结论为助力“双碳”目标提供可行路径,也为各地政府部门积极谋划推进人工智能技术创新方案提供新的经验证据。The new generation of artificial intelligence technology uses big data combined with super algorithm computing power,relies on deep learning and scientific decision-making,and provides a new way to promote energy conservation and consumption reduction.In the context of the transition economy,AI technology innovation has become a powerful starting point to guide the transformation of China's economic growth momentum and achieve the win-win goal of sustainable development and environmental protection.Based on the panel data of Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2021,this paper empirically examines the carbon emission reduction effect and transmission channels of artificial intelligence technology innovation by using a two-way fixed-effect model,an intermediary model and a spatial effect model.The results show that AI technology innovation can significantly reduce carbon emission intensity and help achieve the"dual carbon"goal,which is still valid after a series of endogenous and robustness tests.Mechanism analysis shows that AI technology innovation indirectly promotes carbon emission reduction by improving energy efficiency,and the upgrading of industrial structure,marketization level and factor resource mismatch level are the key factors affecting the energy efficiency improvement of AI technology innovation.The analysis of regional heterogeneity shows that AI technology innovation only has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emissions in the eastern region,while the central and western regions do not produce obvious carbon emission reduction effects,but accelerate carbon emissions in the western region.Spatial econometric analysis shows that AI technology innovation can not only reduce local carbon emission intensity,but also reduce the carbon emission intensity of neighboring regions,which is conducive to the formation of a spatial pattern of coordinated development of regional green innovation.In addition,there is also an obvious carbon emissions"rebound"effect on the impact of AI technology innovation on ca

关 键 词：人工智能 技术创新 碳排放 能源利用效率 碳排放回弹 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F424.3[文化科学] G301G311