中国“十四五”时期可再生能源发展预测分析  

Forecast of Renewable Energy Development in China During the 14th Five-Year Plan Period

作　　者：王丽敏 王庆丰[1,2] 刘晓慧 Wang Limin;Wang Qingfeng;Liu Xiaohui(Systems and Industrial Engineering Technology Research Center,Zhongyuan University of Technology;School of Economics and Management,Zhongyuan University of Technology,Zhengzhou 450007,China)

机构地区：[1]中原工学院系统与工业工程技术研究中心,河南郑州450007 [2]中原工学院经济管理学院,河南郑州450007

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2024年第5期209-215,共7页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“可再生能源消费补贴规模测算与效果评价研究”(18BJY067);河南省高校哲学社会科学创新人才支持计划项目(2023-CXRC-21)。

摘　　要：为检验中国的可再生能源产业是否能够延续过去的快速发展势头并实现《“十四五”可再生能源发展规划》中的既定目标,采用平均弱化缓冲算子对风电、太阳能发电等非水可再生能源原始数据进行缓冲预处理,消除产业政策带来的冲击扰动,并在此基础上对可再生能源消费总量和发电量、风力和太阳能发电量等预测对象采用GM(1,1)模型建模预测。预测结果显示,上述预测对象均不能保证按期实现“十四五”规划中既定的发展目标。为确保按期实现“十四五”规划目标,一要增强市场消纳能力,提升可再生能源利用水平;二要完善市场化发展机制,实现可再生能源市场驱动发展;三要继续加强节能减排工作,控制能源消费总量增速。In order to test whether the renewable energy industry can continue the rapid development and achieve the goals set in the 14th Five-Year Renewable Energy Plan,the average weakening buffer operator is used to buffer and preprocess the original data sequence of wind power and solar power generation to eliminate the impact disturbance caused by external factors of industrial policy.On this basis,GM(1,1)model is applied to predict total renewable energy consumption and power generation,wind and solar power generation.According to the forecast results,none of the above predicted objects can guarantee the realization of the development goals set in the 14th Five-Year Plan on schedule.Based on the prediction results,the paper puts forward to the following recommendations.Firstly,enhance the market consumption capacity and improve the utilization level of renewable energy;Secondly,improve the market-oriented mechanism and realize the renewable energy market-driven development;Thirdly,continue to strengthen energy conservation and emission reduction and control the growth of total energy consumption.

关 键 词：可再生能源 灰色预测 缓冲算子 电价补贴政策 

分 类 号：F201[经济管理—国民经济] F426.2[文化科学] F224G301