基于PSW-DID模型的最严格水资源管理政策评估效应  

Evaluation of the Effects of the Most Stringent Water Management Policies Based on the PSW-DID Model

作　　者：韩爱华 高子桓 罗一方 韩素华 HAN Ai-hua;GAO Zi-huan;LUO Yi-fang;HAN Su-hua(Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China;Wuhan College,Wuhan 430212,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学,湖北武汉430073 [2]武汉学院,湖北武汉430212

出　　处：《数理统计与管理》2024年第2期223-237,共15页Journal of Applied Statistics and Management

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目(23&ZD057);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(CXJH202102,31512211201)。

摘　　要：水利是农业的命脉,农业节水灌溉是突破农业粮食生产的水资源瓶颈,2011年建立了最严格水资源管理制度。基于此,本文以塔里木河流域5个地州42个县市和兵团4个师为样本,使用倾向得分加权双重差分(PSW-DID)方法,从最严格水资源管理对扩大耕地灌溉面积以及促进农业发展两个方面,客观评价最严格水资源管理政策的实施效果。研究发现:(1)PSW-DID模型不仅解决了内生性问题,消除了样本选择性偏差,而且采用重叠权重实现了处理组与控制组之间的平衡,避免了PSM-DID模型中控制组样本损失,提升了估计的效率与稳健性;(2)最严格水资源管理红线的划定对耕地灌溉面积扩大有正向促进作用,政策实施效果因灌区类型、耕地类型不同而产生差异;(3)耕地灌溉面积扩大可以为最严格水资源管理政策在推动农业发展方面提供重要保障,在中型灌区实施该政策对农业生产总值的促进效果更加显著。Water conservancy is the lifeblood of agriculture.Agricultural water-saving irrigation is a breakthrough in the bottleneck of water resources for agricultural food production.In 2011,the most stringent water resources management system was established.Based on this,this paper takes 42 counties,cities,and 4 divisions in 5 prefectures in the Tarim River Basin as samples,and uses the propensity score weighted double difference(PSW-DID)method for the first time to expand the irrigated area of cultivated land from the most stringent water resources management and Promote the development of agriculture in two aspects,objectively evaluate the implementation effect of the most stringent water resources management policy.The study found that:1)PSW-DID model not only solves the endogenous problem,eliminates the sample selection bias,uses overlapping weights to achieve the balance between the processing group and the control group,avoids the loss of control group samples in the PSM-DID model,and improves Estimated efficiency and robustness;2)The delineation of the most stringent water resources management red line has a positive promotion effect on the expansion of cultivated land irrigation area,and the effect of policy implementation varies depending on the type of irrigation area and cultivated land type;3)The expansion of cultivated land irrigation area is the most stringent Water resources management policies are an important guarantee for promoting agricultural development.The implementation of the most stringent water resources management policies in mediumsized irrigation districts has a more significant effect on promoting agricultural production.

关 键 词：最严格水资源政策 节水灌溉 农业发展 双重差分 倾向得分加权 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计]