基于PSR的长三角区域生态环境质量综合评价及预测  

Comprehensive Evaluation and Prediction of Ecological Environment Quality in Yangtze River Delta Region Based on PSR

作　　者：张培 ZHANG Pei(School of Mathematics and Statistics;Research Centre for Urban and Rural Big Data Development and Digital Governance,Suzhou University,Suzhou 234000,China)

机构地区：[1]宿州学院数学与统计学院,安徽宿州234000 [2]宿州学院城乡大数据发展与数字治理研究中心,安徽宿州234000

出　　处：《枣庄学院学报》2024年第2期77-87,共11页Journal of Zaozhuang University

基　　金：2021年安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目(AHSKQ2021D98)。

摘　　要：根据生态环境压力-状态-响应模型(pressure-state-response,简称PSR),进行生态环境质量综合评价指标体系的构建,利用变异系数法对2011—2021年长三角区域中心区27个城市生态环境质量进行综合评价,同时运用GM(1,1)模型对2022—2024年长三角区域生态环境质量进行预测。2011—2021年长三角中心区生态环境质量总体呈现上升趋势,在生态环境状态和生态环境响应上也呈现上升趋势,但生态环境压力越来越大。在省域层面上,2011—2021年长三角中心区生态环境响应显示上海市综合指数最高;江苏省生态环境状态最高;安徽省生态环境压力的空间特征最高,上海最低,浙江省、江苏省居中。在市域层面,生态环境质量综合评价指数排名前三依次为舟山、池州、安庆,这与工业经济发展水平导致的环境压力相关。由GM(1,1)模型预测可知,2022—2024年的生态环境质量将呈现总体上升趋势。Based on the ecological environment pressure-state-response(PSR)model,the construction of a comprehensive evaluation index system for ecological environment quality was carried out,and the coefficient of variation method was used to comprehensively evaluate the ecological environment quality of 27 cities in the central area of the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)region from 2011 to 2021,while the GM(1,1)model was used to predict the ecological environment quality of the YRD region from 2022 to 2024.The ecological environmental quality of the central Yangtze River Delta region generally showed an increasing trend from 2011 to 2021,and also in terms of ecological status and ecological response,but the ecological environmental pressure is getting bigger and bigger.At the provincial level,the ecological environmental response in the central YRD region from 2011 to 2021 showed that Shanghai had the highest composite index;Jiangsu Province had the highest in terms of ecological environmental status;Anhui Province had the highest spatial characteristics of ecological environmental pressure,Shanghai had the lowest,and Zhejiang Province and Jiangsu Province were in the middle.At the city level,the top three in the comprehensive evaluation index of ecological environmental quality were Zhoushan,Chizhou,and Anqing in order,which was related to the environmental pressure caused by the level of industrial economic development.As predicted by the GM(1,1)model,the ecological environmental quality showed sed a general upward trend from 2022 to 2024.

关 键 词：长三角中心区 生态环境质量 PSR模型 变异系数法 

分 类 号：X821[环境科学与工程—环境工程]