“去美元化”下中国与拉美货币金融深化合作的机遇与挑战  

Northeast Asia Economic Research Opportunities and Challenges of Deepening Monetary and Financial Cooperation between China and Latin America under De-dollarization

作　　者：姜玉妍 徐沛原 JIANG Yuyan;XU Peiyuan(Center for Latin American Studies,Faculty of History,Nankai University,Tianjin,300350;Institute for International and Area Studies,Tsinghua University,Beijing,100084)

机构地区：[1]南开大学历史学院拉丁美洲研究中心,天津300350 [2]清华大学国际与地区研究院,北京100084

出　　处：《东北亚经济研究》2024年第2期91-106,共16页Northeast Asia Economic Research

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大课题“独立以来拉美主要国家的社会转型研究”(19JJD770007)。

摘　　要：在全球金融危机加剧的背景下,美元霸权信用体系不断下降,各国开始掀起“去美元化”风潮。人民币的加速上升为世界提供了一种可替代货币,拉美地区的巴西、阿根廷等大型新兴经济体率先与中国签署了货币互换协议,加深了中拉间的货币金融合作。拉美左翼上台后,重启拉美一体化和统一货币进程,使中拉在经贸领域的合作不断加深,为双方货币金融合作营造出良好的政治氛围。加之中拉央行数字货币的飞速发展,为金融合作提供了强大的技术支撑,使中拉货币互换合作面临着诸多机遇。然而,由于美元的霸权体系仍然较为顽固,短时期内无法消除美元对世界的影响;中国国内金融市场仍然较为封闭,难以实现人民币在国际上的自由流动;拉美地区汇率波动较大,增高了金融风险几率,使中拉货币金融的深化合作仍然面临一定的挑战。为进一步推动人民币在拉美地区的使用,中国应以“一带一路”倡议和“自贸区”建设为依托,加强与拉美国家在经贸领域的合作,提高货币互换下的金融风险管控,深化国内金融体系改革,扩大离岸人民币规模,推动中拉货币金融合作走向新的台阶。Against the backdrop of the intensifying global financial crisis,the hegemonic credit system of the US dollar has been declining,and countries have begun to set off a trend of dedollarization.The accelerated rise of RMB has provided the world with an alternative currency,and large emerging economies in Latin America,such as Brazil and Argentina,have taken the lead in signing currency swap agreements with China,deepening the monetary and financial cooperation between China and Latin America.After the Latin American left wing came to power,it restarted the Latin American integration and unified currency process,which deepened the cooperation between China and Latin America in the field of economy and trade,and created a favorable political atmosphere for the monetary and financial cooperation between the two sides.Coupled with the rapid development of digital currencies of the central banks of China and Latin America,it has provided strong technical support for financial cooperation,which has led to many opportunities for China-Latin America currency swap cooperation.However,as the hegemonic system of the US dollar is still relatively stubborn,it is impossible to eliminate the influence of the US dollar on the world in a short period of time;China's domestic financial market is still relatively closed,which makes it difficult to realize the free flow of the RMB in the international arena;and exchange rate fluctuations in Latin America are large,which increases the chances of financial risks,so that deepening the cooperation between China and Latin America in the field of currency and finance is still facing certain challenges.In order to further promote the use of RMB in Latin America,China should take the Belt and Road Initiative and the construction of the free trade zones as the basis,strengthen cooperation with Latin American countries in the field of economy and trade,improve the financial risk control under the currency swap,deepen the reform of the domestic financial system,expand the scale of offshore RMB,a

关 键 词：拉丁美洲 “去美元化” 货币互换 央行数字货币 

分 类 号：F833[经济管理—金融学]