美国在1979年伊斯兰革命中的情报失误及其启示  

US Intelligence Failures in the 1979 Islamic Revolution and Its Implications

作　　者：王国兵 张杰[1] Wang Guobing;Zhang Jie(School of International Relations and Center for South Asian Studies,Xi'an International Studies University,Xi'an 710128;Iranian Studies Center,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715)

机构地区：[1]西安外国语大学国际关系学院暨南亚研究中心,西安710128 [2]西南大学伊朗研究中心,重庆400715

出　　处：《情报杂志》2024年第4期13-18,共6页Journal of Intelligence

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“伊斯兰革命卫队与伊朗内政外交研究”(编号:23CGJ044)研究成果。

摘　　要：[研究目的]研究1979年伊斯兰革命过程中美国情报工作的失误表现与成因能够为中国在对外事务研判和情报分析等方面提供更多借鉴和参考。[研究方法]主要使用文献分析法对美国相关外交档案展开梳理,从情报周期的各个阶段展开分析,系统梳理事前威胁研判、情报搜集和情报分析、情报分发等多个环节的失误成因和内在的逻辑关系。[研究结论]美国在这次伊朗国内政局变动中存在情报失误的情况,启示我们应提升战略情报预警能力,及时研判风险等级,情报消费者也应该注重保持中立,不断优化情报分发机制,才能避免类似失误。[Research purpose]Studying the performance and causes of errors in US intelligence work during the 1979 Islamic Revolution can provide more reference and guidance for China in foreign affairs research and intelligence analysis.[Research method]The main use of literature analysis method is to sort out the relevant diplomatic archives of the United States,analyzing from various stages of the intelligence cycle,systematically sorting out the causes and internal logical relationships of errors in various aspects such as pre-threat assessment,intelligence collection and analysis,and intelligence distribution.[Research conclusion]There were intelligence errors in the US during the internal political changes in Iran,which suggests that we should enhance our strategic intelligence warning capabilities,timely assess risk levels,and intelligence consumers should also pay attention to maintaining neutrality and continuously optimizing the intelligence distribution mechanism to avoid similar errors.

关 键 词：伊朗 伊斯兰革命 美国 情报 情报失误 决策者因素 文献分析法 

分 类 号：G359[文化科学—情报学]