社交媒体主题的周期性对其主题触发能力的影响——基于新浪微博的样本分析  

The Impact of the Periodicity of Social Media Themes on Their Topic Triggering Ability:Analysis Based on Sina Weibo

作　　者：徐翔 徐舟爽 Xu Xiang;Xu Zhoushuang(College of Arts&Media,Tongji University,Shanghai 201804)

机构地区：[1]同济大学艺术与传媒学院,上海201804

出　　处：《情报杂志》2024年第4期156-167,共12页Journal of Intelligence

摘　　要：[研究目的]分析社交媒体中主题周期特征对主题之间的触发关系影响,为社交媒体舆论引导、信息调控提供有效的调控手段与推进。[研究方法]采取小波分析及其红噪声检验、格兰杰因果分析的主要方法,以新浪微博三年共32779920条帖子为样本,分析和检验微博中主题的不同周期性特征是否对其主题触发和影响舆论的能力有不同作用。[研究结论]主题的特定周期具有对主题触发能力的影响:7天、49天等7天或7的多倍的周期对该主题的触发能力有正面影响;主题的周期数量具有对其触发能力的影响:周期数量和议程的触发能力、被触发能力均有正相关性;主题的周期长度特征具有对其触发能力的影响:最短周期越短则该主题的触发能力越强;最长周期越长则该主题的触发能力也越强。该研究可为社交网络的舆情调控、议程演化的管理引导提供参考。主题具有的周期特征使其产生主题触发的原因、机理和功能,是有待拓展的研究领域。[Research purpose]Analyzes the influence of the theme periodic character in social media on the trigger relationship between themes,and provides effective regulation means and promotion for the guidance of public opinion and regulation of information in social media.[Research method]Adopting the main methods of wavelet analysis,red noise test,and Granger causality analysis,a sample of 32779920 posts from Sina Weibo over the past three years was used to analyze and test whether the periodic characteristics of topics in Weibo have different effects on the ability of topics to trigger and influence public opinion.[Research conclusion]A specific periodicity of a topic has an impact on its triggering ability:7 days,49 days,or multiple period of 7 days have a positive impact on the triggering ability of the topic.The periodicity number of topics has an impact on its triggering ability:the number of periodicity is positively correlated with the triggering ability and being triggered ability of the agenda.The impact of the periodicity length feature of a topic on its triggering ability:the shorter the shortest period,the stronger the triggering ability of the topic;The longer the maximum period,the stronger the triggering ability of the topic.This study provides reference for the management and guidance of public opinion regulation and agenda evolution in social networks.The reasons,mechanisms,and functions of the periodic characteristics of themes that trigger public opinion are research areas that need to be expanded.

关 键 词：社交媒体 主题周期 网络舆情 主题扩散 主题触发 新浪微博 格兰杰因果分析 

分 类 号：G206[文化科学—传播学]