中国两大苹果主产区积冷量时空变化特征  

Spatial-temporal Variation Characteristics of Chill Accumulation in Two Major Apple Production Areas in China

作　　者：邱美娟 刘布春[2] 刘园[2] 王一舟[3] QIU Meijuan;LIU Buchun;LIU Yuan;WANG Yizhou(College of Agronomy and Resources and Environment,Tianjin Agricultural University,Tianjin 300384;Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture,Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Beijing 100081;Institute of Geology,China Earthquake Administration,Beijing 100029)

机构地区：[1]天津农学院农学与资源环境学院,天津300384 [2]中国农业科学院农业环境与可持续发展研究所,北京100081 [3]中国地震局地质研究所,北京100029

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2024年第9期106-116,共11页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1502800);中国农业科学院科技创新工程(CAAS−ASTIP−2014−IEDA)。

摘　　要：落叶果树需要一定的低温累积才能打破休眠,正常开花结果。研究苹果主产区积冷量变化情况,为苹果安全生产提供参考依据。利用中国黄土高原和环渤海湾地区两大苹果主产区34个气象站1961-2017年逐日气温数据,基于国际上常用的0~7.2℃、犹他、正犹他、改进的犹他和动力学等5种模型,计算两大苹果主产区积冷量,分析对比其时空变化特征及影响因素,以及未来果树生产的安全性。5种模型得到的积冷量空间上具有相同的分布特征,均呈南高北低。最高值位于山东省青岛,分别为1717CH、1690CU、1730CU、1576CU和76CP,最低值位于河北省围场,分别为533CH、423CU、426CU、390CU和29CP;时间上,大多数站点近56年均呈显著增加趋势(P<0.05);与冬季气温普遍呈显著的正相关关系(P<0.05);与纬度均呈极显著的负相关关系(P<0.01),并且在纬度、经度和海拔高度3个影响因子中,纬度对积冷量的贡献最大,其次是海拔高度。在气候变化背景下,当前区域仍然有利于苹果树的安全稳定生产。Deciduous fruit trees require a certain low temperature accumulation to break dormancy before flowering and fruiting normally.The objective of this paper was to study the characteristic and variation of chill accumulation in main apple producing areas in China,so as to provide a reference for the safe production of apple.Based on the daily temperature data of 34 meteorological stations in two major apple-producing areas in China from 1961-2017 and five international commonly used chill models i.e.0-7.2℃model,Utah model,Positive Utah model,Modified Utah model and Dynamic model,we calculated chill accumulation in the two major apple-producing areas.And then the spatial-temporal variation characteristics and influencing factors of chill accumulation were analyzed and compared.We also pointed out the similarities and differences between the models,as well as the safety of future fruit tree production.The results showed that the chill accumulations obtained by the five models had nearly the consistent spatial distribution characteristic,which was high in the south and low in the north of the study area.For the 0-7.2℃,Utah,Positive Utah,Modified Utah and Dynamic models respectively,the highest values were 1717CH,1690CU,1730CU,1576CU and 76 CP in Qingdao,Shandong Province,and the lowest values were 533CH,423CU,426CU,390CU and 29CP in Weichang,Hebei Province.Linear trend analysis showed that the chill accumulation of all the sites had an increasing trend(P<0.05).And correlation analysis also showed that the chill accumulation had positive correlation with mean winter temperature(P<0.05),while they were negatively correlated with latitude(P<0.01).Multiple regression analysis indicated that,among the three influencing factors of latitude,longitude and altitude,latitude contributed most to chill accumulation,followed by altitude,while the chill accumulations were insensitive to the change of longitude.In the context of climate change,the current region is still conducive to the safe and stable production of apple fruit

关 键 词：落叶果树 苹果 积冷量 犹他模型 动力学模型 气候变化 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] S66[农业科学—果树学]