全球金融风险冲击下中国三大区域的经济动态——粤港澳大湾区、江浙沪和京津冀地区的对比  

The Economic Dynamics of Three Major Regions in China Under the Shock of Global Financial Risk:A Comparison of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai Region and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

作　　者：胡云飞 戴国强[1] HU Yunfei;DAI Guoqiang

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学金融学院,上海200433

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2024年第4期136-152,共17页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目“以全球城市为核心的巨型城市群引领双循环发展研究”(22&ZD067),项目负责人:周振华;教育部哲学社会科学项目“去全球化背景下我国金融风险防范与控制”(09JYJR045),项目负责人:戴国强。

摘　　要：本文选择粤港澳大湾区、江浙沪地区和京津冀地区来代表中国三大区域经济,运用面板结构向量自回归模型,旨在比较这三个地区在美联储紧缩货币政策和全球金融风险冲击下的动态变化。研究结果表明,在短期内,江浙沪和京津冀地区对名义GDP、通货膨胀、贸易开放度和一般公共预算收入的响应与粤港澳大湾区相似,但在中期的持续性上存在差异。这三个地区在通货膨胀和贸易开放度方面均受到较大影响,而名义GDP和一般公共预算收入方面受到的影响相对较小。相较于江浙沪和京津冀地区,粤港澳大湾区对美联储货币政策冲击的响应更为敏感。同时,江浙沪和京津冀地区的通货膨胀受到同业拆借利率冲击的影响更显著。本文从全球金融风险冲击的角度来评估这三大区域经济的动态变化,研究结果有助于相关部门更加准确地调整和制定货币政策以及区域经济政策,以避免由于不同地区对金融风险传导的响应差异而导致的经济损失。In this paper,Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region are selected to represent the three major regional economies in China,and Panel SVAR models are applied with the aim of comparing the dynamics of these three regions in the face of the Fed's tightening of monetary policy and global financial risk shocks.The results show that in the short run,the response of Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regions to nominal GDP,inflation,trade openness and general public budget revenues is similar to that of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Great Bay Area,but there is a difference in the persistence in the medium run.All three regions are more affected in terms of inflation and trade openness,while relatively less affected in terms of nominal GDP and general public budget revenue.Compared with Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area is more sensitive to the Fed's monetary policy shocks.Meanwhile,inflation in Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai region and Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is more significantly affected by interbank lending rate shocks.This paper assesses the dynamics of these three major regional economies from the perspective of financial risk shocks,and the results of the study help the relevant authorities to more accurately adjust and formulate monetary policies as well as regional economic policies,so as to avoid economic losses due to the differences in the response of different regions to the transmission of financial risks.

关 键 词：美联储紧缩货币政策 全球金融风险 贸易开放度 粤港澳大湾区 

分 类 号：F831.0[经济管理—金融学]