颅内单纯生殖细胞瘤患者的生存预测:基于SEER数据库的临床研究  

Survival prediction of patients with intracranial simple germ cell tumors:a clinical study based on SEER database

作　　者：李海马 孙恺 刘如恩 Li Haima;Sun Kai;Liu Ruen(Department of Neurosurgery,Jiangxi Medical College,Nanchang University/Department of Neurosurgery,Jiangxi Provincial People's Hospital(the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang Medical College),Nanchang 330006,China;Department of Neurosurgery,Affiliated Hospital of University of Electronic Science and Technology/Sichuan Provincial People's Hospital,Chengdu 610072,China)

机构地区：[1]南昌大学江西医学院·江西省人民医院(南昌医学院第一附属医院)神经外科,南昌330006 [2]电子科技大学附属医院·四川省人民医院神经外科,成都610072

出　　处：《中华神经创伤外科电子杂志》2023年第5期283-288,共6页Chinese Journal Of Neurotraumatic Surgery：Electronic Edition

摘　　要：目的基于SEER数据库构建颅内单纯生殖细胞瘤生存预测的风险分层框架和诺模图。方法利用监测、流行病学和最终结果(SEER)数据库收集自2000年1月至2019年12月确诊为颅内单纯生殖细胞瘤患者的人口统计学、生存结果和治疗方法等信息。通过Kaplan-Meier曲线和Cox比例风险模型评估生存模式,并设计诺模图来评价颅内单纯生殖细胞瘤患者的预后,通过一致性指数(C指数)评价预测模型的准确性。结果将年龄、性别、种族、放射治疗、化学治疗和手术因素构建颅内单纯生殖细胞瘤患者3年及5年生存期(OS)的预测模型,诺模图C指数为0.64。根据诺模图计算的风险得分分为低风险评分(≥140.67分)和高风险评分(<140.67分),Kaplan-Meier生存曲线分析显示,年龄<20岁、接受化学治疗、低风险评分患者表现出较长的OS,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05),而性别、种族、放射治疗、手术治疗对患者OS的影响差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论构建原发性颅内生殖细胞瘤患者生存预测的诺模图与风险分层机制,有利于临床医生对颅内单纯生殖细胞瘤患者的OS进行预测。Objective To construct a risk stratification framework and nomogram for predicting the survival of intracranial germ cell tumors based on the SEER database.Methods The surveillance,epidemiology,and end results(SEER)database was used to collect demographic,survival,and treatment information for patients diagnosed with intracranial germinoma simplex from January 2000 to December 2019.Kaplan-Meier curve and Cox proportional risk model were used to evaluate the survival mode,and a nomogram was designed to evaluate the prognosis of patients with simple intracranial germ-cell tumor.The concordance index(C-index)was used to evaluate the accuracy of the prediction model.Results A predictive model for 3-year and 5-year overall survival(OS)of patients with intracranial simple germ cell tumors was constructed based on factors such as age,gender,race,radiation therapy,chemotherapy,and surgery.The nomogram C-index was 0.64.The risk score calculated based on the nomogram were divided into low-risk scores(≥140.67 points)and high-risk scores(<140.67 points).Kaplan Meier survival curve analysis showed that patients younger than 20 years old,receiving chemotherapy and low-risk score showed a longer survival period,and the difference was statistically significant(P<0.05).However,there was no statistically significant difference in the impact of gender,race,radiation therapy,and surgical treatment on the overall survival rate of patients(P>0.05).Conclusion The construction of nomogram and risk stratification mechanism for survival prediction of patients with primary intracranial germinoma is helpful for clinicians to predict the OS in patients with simple intracranial germinoma.

关 键 词：颅内生殖细胞瘤 生殖细胞瘤 生存预测 SEER数据库 

分 类 号：R651.1[医药卫生—外科学]