气候变化对天山地区极端径流的影响—以开都河为例  

The impact of climate change on extreme runoffs in the Tianshan region:Taking Kaidu River as an example

作　　者：郑鹏 陈亚宁[2] 王怀军 杨余辉[1] ZHENG Peng;CHEN Yaning;WANG Huaijun;YANG Yuhui(College of Geographic Science and Tourism,Xinjiang Normal University,Urumqi 830054,China;State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology,Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Urumqi 830011,China;School of Geography and Planning,Huaiyin Normal University,Huai’an 223300,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆师范大学地理科学与旅游学院,乌鲁木齐830054 [2]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,乌鲁木齐830011 [3]淮阴师范学院地理科学与规划学院,江苏淮安223300

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2024年第4期105-112,共8页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(42130512)。

摘　　要：【目的】揭示天山地区极端径流演变规律,预估不同气候变化情景下天山地区极端径流特征。【方法】基于Sen slope、MK检验、Pettitt检验、概率分布函数、SWAT模型和GCM模式分析极端径流演变特征。【结果】1959—2018年,开都河流域年、夏、秋和冬季径流呈不显著增加趋势,春季径流呈显著增加趋势,径流变化与降水的相关性大于与同期气温的相关性。极端径流频率、强度和持续时间呈增加趋势,初洪时间呈显著推迟趋势。Log-Pearson3函数对极端径流的模拟表现最优,50 a重现期洪水次数、高流量最长持续时间、平均峰值流量重现水平分别为7.09次、79.04 d和180.04 m^(3)/s。未来气候变化情景下,洪水次数增加,极端强度(平均年最大流量)增大,持续时间(高流量最长持续时间、高流量平均持续时间)和平均强度(平均极端径流流量、平均峰值流量)减小,初洪时间呈提前趋势,且最高和最低极端径流强度(平均极端径流流量、平均峰值流量、平均年最大流量)重现水平分别发生在SSP245和SSP370情景。【结论】气候变化对天山极端径流具有重要影响,未来该地区将经历更频繁的极端径流事件和更为严重的单次特大洪水,研究结果对制定气候变化适应策略和水资源管理方案具有重要的指导意义。【Objective】Climate change is anticipated to lead to increased frequency of extreme weather events such as droughts and floods,which have significant implications for water availability in catchment areas.In this paper,we analyze extreme runoff events in the Tianshan region in northwestern China and their correlation with climate change.【Method】The analysis was based on data measured over the past 60 years from the Kaidu River Basin in the region.The variation in its runoff events was analyzed using the Sen slope,MK test,Pettitt test and probability distribution function,coupled with the SWAT model and the GCM model.【Result】①Annual runoff and seasonal runoff,except in spring in which the runoff has seen a significant increase,in the basin have been increasing,albeit not at significant levels.Runoff changes are correlated to precipitation more than to temperature.②Over the past 60 years,frequency,intensity and duration of extreme runoff events have been increasing,and there is a delay in the occurrence of the first flood in each year.③The Log-Pearson3 function is optimal for modelling extreme runoff events.The returning times of floods was 50 years,the maximum duration of flooding events and average peak flow rate of floods were 7.09 times,79.04 days and 180.04 m^(3)/s,respectively.④Under projected climate change scenarios,the frequency of flooding events will increase,average annual maximum flow rate in the floods will amplify,maximum duration and average duration of floods,as well as average intensity of floods will all increase.The first flooding in each year will arrive early,and extreme runoff intensity is the highest under the SSP245 scenario and the lowest under the SSP370 scenario.【Conclusion】Climate change significantly influences extreme runoff events in the Tianshan region,resulting in increased frequency and severity of both extreme runoff events and single large flood.These findings have important implications for improving management strategies to mitigate the adversary impact

关 键 词：气候变化 极端径流 SWAT模型 天山 开都河 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学] P467[水利工程—水文学及水资源]