中国资产负债表失衡的经济逻辑  

The Economic Logic of China’s Unbalanced Balance Sheet

作　　者：杨新铭 楠玉[2] 朱晶晶 YANG Xinming;NAN Yu;ZHU Jingjing(Institute of Information Studies,CASS,100732;Institute of Economics,CASS,100836)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院信息情报研究院,北京市100732 [2]中国社会科学院经济研究所,北京市100836

出　　处：《财经智库》2023年第6期17-34,139,共19页Financial Minds

基　　金：中国社会科学院创新工程重大科研规划项目“国家治理体系与治理能力现代化研究”(2017JJSA01);国家社科基金重大项目“现代化经济体系的系统结构、测度指标与重大问题研究”(20ZDA043)。

摘　　要：用资产负债表衰退解释中国经济短期偏离潜在经济增长率的微观机制,既不能识别各部门的“资产负债表失衡”来源,也不能识别各部门“修复资产负债表”是主动为之还是被动压缩债务扩张速度的真实动因,当然也就无法给出治理资产负债表失衡并抑制经济下行的政策。基于此,我们对造成资产负债表波动和失衡的外部冲击来源进行分析,发现中国当前资产负债表失衡的直接原因是中美经济周期分化与美国货币政策收紧、世界经济衰退风险上升与国际贸易萎缩、房地产市场进入下行周期与各部门对房地产依赖等,其内在的经济逻辑则是资产价格波动性强于负债刚性,匹配经济快速增长的金融制度不能匹配经济下行阶段的资产负债表扩张,再加之中国金融系统对不同市场主体的歧视性政策,进一步加剧了资产负债表失衡。因此,要改善我国资产负债表失衡现状,就需要通过创新金融制度以消除金融系统对不同市场主体的歧视性政策,研发匹配经济下行阶段促进资产负债表扩张的金融工具,而货币政策则需要从促增长向稳资产价格转型。Using the balance sheet recession to explain the micro-mechanism of China’s short-term deviation from the potential economic growth rate can neither identify the source of the“balance sheet imbalance”of various sectors,nor identify the real motivation of the“balance sheet repair”of various sectors which might be to actively or passively reduce the speed of debt expansion.Of course,there is no policy to address balance-sheet imbalances and curb the economic downturn.Based on this,we analyze the sources of external shocks that cause balance sheet volatility and imbalance,and fi nd that the direct causes of China’s current balance sheet imbalance are the divergence of economic cycles between China and the United States,the tightening of monetary policy in the United States,the rising risk of world economic recession and the contraction of international trade,the downward cycle of the real estate market and the dependence of various sectors on real estate.The inherent economic logic is that the volatility of asset prices is stronger than the rigidity of liabilities,and the fi nancial system that matches the rapid economic growth cannot match the expansion of the balance sheet in the economic downturn stage,coupled with the discriminatory policies of China’s fi nancial system against different market entities,which further aggravates the balance sheet imbalance.Therefore,in order to improve the imbalance of balance sheet in China,it is necessary to innovate the fi nancial system to eliminate the discriminatory policies of the financial system to different market entities,and develop fi nancial instruments to promote the expansion of balance sheet in the economic downturn stage.Under such circumstances monetary policy needs to transform from promoting growth to stabilizing asset prices.

关 键 词：资产负债表 金融创新 经济危机 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]