农产品价格波动的机制及影响  

Mechanism and Impact of Agricultural Price Volatility

作　　者：胡冰川[1] HU Bingchuan(Rural Development Institute,CASS,100732)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院农村发展研究所,北京100732

出　　处：《财经智库》2023年第6期67-82,142,共17页Financial Minds

摘　　要：2023年,中国农业迎来了新的丰收,恩格尔系数再次降到30%以内。在此背景下讨论农产品价格波动的一般性规律具有现实意义。对中国及相似国家而言,在生计农业转型过程中,通过市场分隔实现粮食安全和生计维持具备正当性。这种转型机制能够较好地缓冲外部市场价格上涨的冲击,有益于控制输入型通货膨胀;相应地,对于外部市场价格下跌的冲击则可以延缓下跌的时间和幅度,形成缓释效应。这种效应在需求增长时期表现并不明显,因为新增农业产出可以被需求增长所平衡;但在需求饱和阶段则会显现出来,其原因在于产出的边际增量只能依靠价格的更大幅度下降来实现出清。当前中国即是通过“降价促销”,实现了农业产出的市场出清和恩格尔系数的下降。In 2023,agriculture ushered in a new harvest,and Engel coefficient once again fell to less than 30%.Under this background,it is of practical signifi cance to discuss the general rules of agricultural price volatility.For China and similar countries,it is legitimate to achieve food security and livelihood maintenance through market segregation during the transition of subsistence agriculture.This kind of transformation mechanism can absorb the price rise of the external market well and is benefi cial to controlling the infl ation imported from the external market.Correspondingly,the price decline in the external market shows a long lag,forming a slow-release effect of price decline.This effect is not obvious in periods of demand growth,after all,new agricultural output growth can be balanced by demand growth.But the effect can be obvious at the stage of demand saturation,because the marginal increment of output can only be cleared by a larger drop in prices.Based on the above mechanism explanation,this paper also gives the future perspectives and necessary discussion.

关 键 词：农产品价格 三农问题 农民收入 农业市场 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]