基于DPSIR模型的秦岭北麓陕西城市群水安全评估及驱动因子识别  

Assessment of Water Security and Identification of Driving Factors for Shaanxi Urban Agglomeration in the Northern Foothills of Qinling Mountains,China Based on DPSIR Model

作　　者：徐盼盼[1,2,3,4] 陈硕 马浩苑 蒋玉成 冯靖 陈洁[1,2,3,4] 钱会[1,2,3,4] XU Pan-pan;CHEN Shuo;MA Hao-yuan;JIANG Yu-cheng;FENG Jing;CHEN Jie;QIAN Hui(School of Water and Environment,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710054,Shaanxi,China;Key Laboratory of Subsurface Hydrology and Ecological Effect in Arid Region of Ministry of Education,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710054,Shaanxi,China;Key Laboratory of Eco-hydrology and Water Security in Arid and Semi-arid Regions of Ministry of Water Resources,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710054,Shaanxi,China;Academy of Qinling Ecological Environment,Chang'an University,Xi'an 710054,Shaanxi,China)

机构地区：[1]长安大学水利与环境学院,陕西西安710054 [2]长安大学旱区地下水文与生态效应教育部重点实验室,陕西西安710054 [3]长安大学水利部旱区生态水文与水安全重点实验室,陕西西安710054 [4]长安大学秦岭生态环境研究院,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《地球科学与环境学报》2024年第2期143-153,共11页Journal of Earth Sciences and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42341102);大学生创新创业训练计划项目(S202310710060)。

摘　　要：水安全评估是水资源开发利用与区域发展的基础。为了加强秦岭北麓陕西城市群可持续建设,助力秦岭“中央水塔”绿色发展,基于DPSIR模型构建秦岭北麓陕西城市群水安全评估体系,结合主客观综合赋权法与模糊综合评价法对区域2011~2021年水安全进行评估分级,并利用灰色关联度法分析其水安全的驱动因子。结果表明:秦岭北麓陕西城市群2011~2021年水安全状态变化具有一致性,波动中稳步提升。西安市水安全等级相较宝鸡市、渭南市上升趋势显著,于2021年转为无警状态;宝鸡市一直保持低警状态,而渭南市长期处于中警状态。陕西城市群的水安全状态及发展趋势与人均GDP、年降水量、人均用水量等10个驱动因子密切相关,其中经济因子是水安全等级呈现一致性的根本保证,社会和生态因子则是造成水安全差异性的主要原因。Water security assessment is essential for water resources development and utilization and regional development.To strengthen the sustainable construction of Shaanxi urban agglomeration in the northern foothills of Qinling Mountains and support the green development of the“Central Water Tower”,the water security assessment system for Shaanxi urban agglomeration in the northern foothills of Qinling Mountains was constructed based on DPSIR model.The regional water security from 2011 to 2021 was assessed and graded by combining the subjective-objective weighting method and the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method,and its driving factors were analyzed by the gray correlation method.The results show that the changes of water security status in Shaanxi urban agglomeration at the northern foothills of Qinling Mountains from 2011 to 2021 are consistent,and the fluctuation is steadily increasing.The water security level in Xi'an has shown a significant upward trend compared to that in Baoji and Weinan,and it has been in a state of no-alert since 2021.Baoji has always maintained a low-alert status,while Weinan has been in a medium-alert status for a long time.These water security status and development trend are closely associated with ten driving factors,including per capita GDP,annual precipitation,and per capita water consumption,etc.Among them,economic factors are the basic guarantee for the consistency of water security level,while social and ecological factors are the main reasons for the differences in water security.

关 键 词：水安全 驱动因子 DPSIR模型 灰色关联度法 城市群 秦岭 陕西 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]