全球视角下中国城镇化进程及其碳排放效应的比较研究  

A comparative study of China’s urbanization process and its carbon emission effect from a global perspective

作　　者：高爽 王少剑 莫惠斌 Gao Shuang;Wang Shaojian;Mo Huibin(Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Urbanization and Geo-simulation,School of Geography and Planning,Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510006,Guangdong,China;School of Urban Design,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,Hubei,China)

机构地区：[1]中山大学地理科学与规划学院广东省城市化与地理环境空间模拟重点实验室,广东广州510006 [2]武汉大学城市设计学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《地理科学》2024年第2期204-215,共12页Scientia Geographica Sinica

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(23&ZD100);国家自然科学基金项目(42371207)资助。

摘　　要：高质量的城镇化发展模式是中国实现现代化和低碳绿色发展转型的关键。本文利用1990―2020年世界195个国家(地区)的面板数据,从人口、空间、经济、社会4个维度测度各个国家(地区)的综合城镇化水平,并基于STIRPAT模型和EKC理论对比分析中国及不同收入群体国家城镇化对碳排放的影响机制。研究结果表明:①世界各国(地区)的综合城镇化水平整体呈现出增长的趋势,其中亚洲和欧洲地区的提升最为明显,中国的综合城镇化水平则呈现出起步低、速度快的发展趋势。②世界各国(地区)的城镇化发展质量正在稳步提升,综合城镇化的发展质量与区域的发展阶段具有密切的相关性,高收入国家(地区)的城镇化发展主要是由经济城镇化和社会城镇化主导的,而低收入国家(地区)城镇化的主导类型则是人口城镇化和空间城镇化,中国的城镇化进程逐渐从以城镇人口带动的“量”转变为协调发展的“质”,但仍与发达国家存在较大差距。③高收入、高城镇化和低收入国家(地区)综合城镇化与人均碳排放上存在“倒U型”曲线关系,中低收入、中高城镇化和低城镇化国家(地区)存在“U型”曲线关系,目前中国还处于人均碳排放随着综合城镇化水平的提升而上升的阶段,“倒U”曲线拐点还未出现,推动经济城镇化和社会城镇化水平的提升则是实现碳达峰的关键。因此,未来中国需要协调城镇化发展、居民生活水平提升和节能减排之间的关系,在提高城镇化质量的同时降低城镇化对碳排放的贡献。High-quality urbanization is key to China’s modernization and low-carbon and green development transition.Based on the panel data of 195 countries(regions)from 1990 to 2020,this paper measures the comprehensive urbanization level of each country(region)from four dimensions of population,space,economy and society,and analyzes the impact mechanism of urbanization on carbon emissions in China and different groups of countries based on STIRPAT and EKC theory.The results show that:1)The comprehensive urbanization level of all countries(regions)around the world shows an increasing trend,with the most obvious improvement in Asia and Europe.There is a large gap in the comprehensive urbanization level between countries(regions)with different income levels.China’s comprehensive urbanization level shows a trend of low start and fast development.2)The proportion of population,space and economic urbanization in countries(regions)around the world is decreasing year by year,while the proportion of social urbanization is steadily rising.And the development quality of comprehensive urbanization is steadily improving.The comprehensive urbanization development of high-income countries(regions)is mainly dominated by economic urbanization and social urbanization,while the dominant types of comprehensive urbanization in low-income countries(regions)are population urbanization and space urbanization.China’s urbanization process has gradually changed from“quantity”driven by urban population to“quality”of coordinated development,but there is still a big gap in the quality of urbanization compared with developed countries.3)There is an“inverted U-shaped”curve relationship between comprehensive urbanization and per capita carbon emissions in high-income,high-urbanization,and low-income countries(regions),and there is an“U-shaped”relationship in low-income,medium-high urbanization,and low-urbanization countries(regions).China’s urbanization and per capita carbon emissions have an“inverted U-shaped”curve relations

关 键 词：综合城镇化 人均碳排放 国际比较 低碳发展 中国 

分 类 号：F290[经济管理—国民经济]