基于改进德尔菲法与层次分析法构建寒区冷习服评价指标体系  

Construction of evaluation indicators for cold acclimation in cold regions based on improved Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process

作　　者：李钰婕 高伟 孔媛 杨昕 于浩 梁琳琅 宋媛媛 LI Yu-jie;GAO Wei;KONG Yuan;YANG Xin;YU Hao;LIANG Lin-lang;SONG Yuan-yuan(Postgraduate College,China Medical University,Shenyang 110001,China;Department of Endocrinology,General Hospital of Northern Theater Command,Shenyang 110016,China;Department of Special Service,960th Hospital of the PLA,Jinan 250000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国医科大学研究生院,辽宁沈阳110001 [2]北部战区总医院内分泌科,辽宁沈阳110016 [3]联勤保障部队第九六〇医院特勤科,山东济南250000

出　　处：《临床军医杂志》2024年第3期257-261,266,共6页Clinical Journal of Medical Officers

基　　金：辽宁省科学技术基金面上项目(2022-MS-048)。

摘　　要：目的 针对寒区特殊环境的作业需求,采用德尔菲法和层次分析法构建一个可以对冷习服能力进行评价的指标体系。方法 按照德尔菲法原理,对在冷习服领域具有权威的21位专家进行3轮函询,根据指标筛选标准及专家反馈意见,确定评估指标体系并应用层次分析法计算权重。结果 3轮专家函询的积极系数分别为100.0%、95.2%、100.0%,专家权威系数在0.75~1.00之间,肯德尔和谐系数分别为0.198、0.201、0.113(P均<0.01)。第3轮各指标变异系数均<0.25,专家意见趋于一致,研究结果可靠性高。最终建立了由4个一级指标和18个二级指标构成的冷习服评价指标体系。结论 本研究充实了寒区冷习服评价指标体系的各种可行性权重指标,为评价寒区冷习服能力提供了科学的理论工具,但信度、效度及应用效果仍需进一步评估。Objective According to the operation requirements of special environment in cold area,Delphi method and analytic hierarchy process were used to construct an index system for evaluating cold accessibilization ability.Methods According to the Delphi method,21 experts with authority in the field of cold training were consulted for 3 rounds,and the evaluation index system was determined according to the index screening criteria and expert feedback,and the weight was calculated by analytic hierarchy process.Results The positive coefficients of the three rounds of expert correspondence were 100.0%,95.2%and 100.0%,the expert authority coefficients were between 0.75 and 1.00,and the Kendall harmony coefficients were 0.198,0.201 and 0.113,respectively(P<0.01).In the third round,the coefficient of variation of each index was less than 0.25,and the expert opinions tended to be consistent,and the research results were highly reliable.Finally,a cold acclimation evaluation index system composed of 4 primary indexes and 18 secondary indexes was established.Conclusion This study enriched the feasibility weights of the evaluation index system of cold acclimation in cold areas,and provided a scientific theoretical tool for evaluating cold acclimation ability in cold areas,but the reliability,validity and application effect need to be further evaluated.

关 键 词：冷习服 德尔菲法 层次分析法 寒区 

分 类 号：R82[医药卫生—临床医学]