基于贝叶斯网络的天基信息支援装备体系作战效能评估方法  

Operational Effectiveness Evaluation of Space-based Information Support Equipment System Based on Bayesian Network

作　　者：于小岚 熊伟 Yu Xiaolan;Xiong Wei(Key Laboratory of National Defense Science and Technology of Electronic Information Equipment System,University of Aerospace Engineering,Beijing 101400,China)

机构地区：[1]航天工程大学电子信息装备体系国防科技重点实验室,北京101400

出　　处：《兵工自动化》2024年第3期74-81,91,共9页Ordnance Industry Automation

基　　金：国防科技重点实验室基金(XM2020XT1023)。

摘　　要：针对天基信息支援装备体系效能评估存在的问题,提出一种基于贝叶斯网络的天基信息支援装备体系作战效能评估方法。构建基于系统动力学的仿真平台获取仿真数据,采用基于搜索的贝叶斯网络结构学习算法以及期望最大化(expectaion maximization,EM)参数学习算法对数据样本进行学习构建贝叶斯网络模型,以正向推理、因果追溯推理、阶段分析推理3种方式进行作战效能分析;通过该模型深入分析海上方向远程精确打击移动舰船目标的作战场景下天基信息支援装备体系中诸多影响因素之间的相互关系与影响程度。仿真结果表明:该方法应用在天基信息支援装备体系作战效能评估具备有效性和可行性,能够为武器装备体系效能评估提供技术支撑。Aiming at the problems of effectiveness evaluation of space-based information support equipment system,a method of operational effectiveness evaluation of space-based information support equipment system based on Bayesian network is proposed.The simulation platform based on system dynamics is constructed to obtain simulation data,and the Bayesian network structure learning algorithm based on search and the expectaion maximization parameter learning algorithm are used to learn the data samples to construct the Bayesian network model.Forward reasoning,cause-and-effect tracing reasoning,and stage analysis reasoning were used to analyze the operational effectiveness.The model was used to analyze the relationship and influence degree of many factors in the space-based information support equipment system in the combat scenario of long-range precision attack on moving ship targets in the direction of the sea.The simulation results show that the method is effective and feasible in the operational effectiveness evaluation of space-based information support equipment system,and can provide technical support for the effectiveness evaluation of weapon equipment system.

关 键 词：贝叶斯网络 推理分析 作战效能评估 天基信息支援装备体系 

分 类 号：TJ01[兵器科学与技术—兵器发射理论与技术] TP79[自动化与计算机技术—检测技术与自动化装置]