情绪因素影响下突发公共事件网络舆情演化及政府应对研究——基于三方演化博弈视角  

Evolution of Public Opinion on Public Emergencies and Government Response under the Influence of Emotional Factors:Based on the Perspective of the Tripartite Game

作　　者：宾宁[1] 容健邦 梁楚茵 陈欢女 胡禾 BIN Ning;RONG Jianbang;LIANG Chuyin;CHEN Huannv;HU He(School of Management,Guangdong University of Technology,Guangzhou 510520)

机构地区：[1]广东工业大学管理学院,广州510520

出　　处：《农业图书情报学报》2024年第1期46-57,共12页Journal of Library and Information Science in Agriculture

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学规划项目“重大突发公共卫生事件网络谣言传播中的多元主体互动机制——基于多主体演化博弈视角的研究”(GD22CGL37);2023年广东工业大学大学生创新创业训练项目“网络谣言传播中的多元主体互动机制——基于多主体演化博弈视角的研究”(xj2023118450469);2024年广东工业大学大学生创新创业训练项目“突发事件网络舆情演变机理和引导策略——基于多主体微分博弈的研究”(xj2024118450528)。

摘　　要：[目的/意义]针对情绪因素影响下突发公共事件网络舆情演化及政府的应对策略,构建网民、网络媒体和政府的三方博弈模型并仿真分析其演化趋势。[方法/过程]引入等级期望效用理论(RDEU),建立三方演化博弈模型,分析情绪因素对主体行为决策的影响以及三方在不同情绪状态影响下的舆情发展趋势,并分析情绪状态对主体决策的影响。[结果/结论]研究表明,情绪会影响主体的行为决策,主体不同的情绪类型和情绪强度会导致网络舆情不同的演化趋势。三方无情绪,或网民和网络媒体持乐观情绪、政府持悲观情绪的状态,更有利于网络舆情向理性演化的方向发展。另外,相较于网民和网络媒体,政府的情绪状态对于舆情演化博弈结果的影响更大;当政府处于悲观情绪时,政府会更倾向于采取积极监管治理网络舆情的举措。[Purpose/Significance]With the rapid development of communication technology,the number of Internet users has increased rapidly,and the public opinion on the Internet has also developed according to the requirements of the times.Aiming at the online public opinion of public emergencies under the influence of emotional factors and the government's response strategies,a tripartite game model of netizens,online media and the government is constructed,and its development trend and the influence of emotional factors are simulated and analyzed.[Method/Process]This paper introduces the theory of hierarchical expected utility(RDEU),establishes a tripartite game model of netizens,online media and the government by using the replication dynamic equation,analyzes the influence of emotional factors on the behavioral decision-making of the main body and the development trend of public opinion of the three parties under the influence of different emotional states.Finally,through Matlab software simulation,the influence of emotional state on decision-making is analyzed,and the strategies and suggestions are proposed from the perspective of the government.Hierarchical expected utility theory(RDEU)is introduced to establish a tripartite evolutionary game model,the influence of emotional factors on the agent's behavior decision-making and the development trend of public opinion under the influence of different emotional states are analyzed,and the influence of emotional states on the agent's decision-making is also analyzed.[Results/Conclusions]Under the influence of emotional factors,different combinations of emotional states of each subject produce different results,and all three parties adopt different strategies according to the actual benefits,and the government's own emotions have the most obvious impact on the results of the evolutionary game.When the government has no mood or is in an optimistic mood,the online environment is relatively unstable,and it is necessary to strengthen the management of public opinion;when the go

关 键 词：网络舆情 等级期望效用理论 情绪 三方演化博弈 

分 类 号：G206[文化科学—传播学]