“强省会”战略促进非省会城市消费吗?  

Does“Strengthening the Provincial Capital”Strategy Promote Consumption in Non-provincial Capital Cities?

作　　者：周先波[1] 沈秀亨 ZHOU Xianbo;SHEN Xiuheng(Sun Yat-sen University,Guangzhou 510275)

机构地区：[1]中山大学岭南学院,广东广州510275

出　　处：《首都经济贸易大学学报》2024年第2期64-79,共16页Journal of Capital University of Economics and Business

基　　金：研究阐释党的十九届五中全会精神国家社会科学基金重大项目“增强消费对经济发展的基础性作用研究”(21ZDA036)。

摘　　要：立足于虹吸效应和扩散效应,利用2006—2020年中国25个省份的246个非省会城市的面板数据,实证研究“强省会”战略对非省会城市的消费率和人均消费的非线性影响。参数估计结果显示,非省会城市的消费率和人均消费均与省会首位度呈现U型关系,而平均边际效应为负。异质性分析结果显示,省份首位度对非省会城市消费率和人均消费的平均边际影响在无强核和单强核省份均为正,在多强核省份皆为负。非参数估计结果显示,当省份首位度处于适当低的水平时,非省会城市消费率与其呈U型关系,但过高的省份首位度具有虹吸效应,不利于提升非省会城市消费率;而人均消费与其总体上呈U型关系,较高的省份首位度对非省会城市人均消费具有扩散效应。各地要因地制宜实施“强省会”战略,释放消费潜力,从而实现高质量发展。Along with the new stage of regional economic development,China attaches increasing importance to the agglomeration and radiation of central cities.More than half of the provinces in China have explicitly proposed the“strengthening the provincial capital”strategy,which aims to strengthen the driving and radiating effect of provincial capitals on the overall economy of a province and the economies of other non-provincial capital cities.However,few studies focus on how the strategy affects the consumption rate and per capita consumption in non-provincial capital cities.Therefore,this paper conducts an empirical analysis based on the siphon effect and the diffusion effect using the panel data of 246 non-provincial capital cities in 25 provinces in China from 2006 to 2020.The provincial capital primacy(PCP),defined as the GDP ratio of the provincial capital,is used as the proxy variable for the strategy.Parametric estimation shows a U-shaped relationship between PCP and the consumption rate of non-provincial capital cities.With the increase of PCP,the consumption rate and per capita consumption first decrease and then increase,but the average marginal effects are adverse.Heterogeneity analysis indicates that for provinces with no strong core and single strong core,the average marginal effects of PCP on both the consumption rate and per capita consumption of non-provincial capital cities are positive.In contrast,for provinces with multiple strong cores,both average marginal effects are negative.Nonparametric estimation reveals that when PCP is at a suitably low level(e.g.PCP<0.53),the consumption rate shows a U-shaped relationship.However,when PCP is at a sufficiently high level(e.g.PCP>0.53),the consumption rate decreases,meaning that an excessively high PCP has a siphon effect on the consumption rate of non-provincial capital cities.The relationship between per capita consumption and PCP is generally U-shaped.showing that a high PCP has a diffusion effect on per capita consumption in non-provincial capital citie

关 键 词：“强省会”战略 城市消费 非省会城市消费 省会首位度 高质量发展 

分 类 号：F299.27[经济管理—国民经济]