基于修正参数Budyko框架的黄河中游径流变化归因  

Attribution of Runoff Change in the Middle Reaches ofthe Yellow River Based on the Modified Parameter Budyko Framework

作　　者：杨明杰 马腾飞 张鹏 YANG Mingjie;MA Tengfei;ZHANG Peng(School of Hydraulic Engineering,Wanjiang University of Technology,Maanshan Anhui 243031,China)

机构地区：[1]皖江工学院水利工程学院,安徽马鞍山243031

出　　处：《长春工程学院学报（自然科学版）》2024年第1期43-49,共7页Journal of Changchun Institute of Technology：Natural Sciences Edition

基　　金：安徽省高校自然科学研究重点项目(KJ2020A0839)。

摘　　要：受气候变化和人类活动的共同作用,黄河中游径流量不断减少。构建了植被变化与气候变化、与人类活动之间的回归方程,从而确定了其对植被变化的贡献率,再将其引入Budyko框架里代表人类活动的流域特征参数中,以确定气候变化和人类活动对径流变化的贡献。结果表明:1)气候变化和人类活动对植被变化的贡献率分别为14.73%和85.27%;2)降水弹性、潜在蒸散发弹性和流域特征弹性分别由突变前的3.04、2.03和3.05增加至突变后的3.48、2.48和3.33;3)气候变化对径流减少的相对贡献率之和为-7.6245%,对径流量增加具有一定的促进作用,而人类活动对径流减少的相对贡献率为107.6245%,是黄河中游径流减少的主要因素。Due to the combined effects of climate change and human activities,the runoff in the middle reaches of the Yellow River continues to decrease.A regression equation between vegetation change and climate change,as well as human activities,is constructed to determine the contribution rates to vegetation change,which are introduced into the basin characteristic parameters representing human activities in the Budyko framework to determine the contribution of climate change and human activities to runoff change then.The results show that the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to vegetation change are 14.73% and 85.27%,respectively.The elasticity of precipitation,potential evapotranspiration and watershed characteristics increase from 3.04,2.03 and 3.05 before mutation to 3.48,2.48 and 3.33 after mutation respectively.The sum of the relative contribution rate of climate change to runoff reduction is-736245%,which has a certain promoting effect on runoff increase.However,the relative contribution of human activities to runoff reduction is 107.6245%,which is the main factor for runoff reduction in the middle reaches of the Yellow River.

关 键 词：黄河中游 径流 植被 Budyko 贡献率 

分 类 号：TV21[水利工程—水文学及水资源]