基于AHP-DEMATEL法的外来入侵植物风险评估指标体系确立  

Establishment of risk assessment indicator system for alien invasive plants based on AHP-DEMATEL method

作　　者：何莉莉 董依豪 赵爱雪 栾云松 刘金昌 曲波[3] HE Lili;DONG Yihao;ZHAO Aixue;LUAN Yunsong;LIU Jinchang;QU Bo(Liaoning Agricultural Development Service Center,Shengyang 110000,China;Lingli Technology(Beijing)Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100020,China;College of Biological Technology,Shenyang Agricultural University,Shenyang 110866,China)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省农业发展服务中心,沈阳110000 [2]凌力科技(北京)有限公司,北京100020 [3]沈阳农业大学生物科学技术学院,沈阳110866

出　　处：《环境保护科学》2024年第2期110-116,共7页Environmental Protection Science

基　　金：辽宁省科技厅农业攻关及产业化指导计划(2019JH8/10200017);国家重点研发计划子课题(2017YFD0201805)。

摘　　要：通过对外来物种风险评估的影响因素进行对比和筛选,统筹指标体系的科学性、重要性、实用性和可移植性,选取决定风险产生的关键因素,构建外来植物风险评估的典型指标体系。从入侵性、适生性、扩散性、危害性4个纬度建立基于AHP-DEMATEL法的外来入侵植物风险度量数学模型,用以揭示因素之间的相互依赖关系,识别并量化因素之间的直接和间接影响,并利用构建的评估体系和生态位模型对印加孔雀草在中国的风险性进行分析。结果表明:经济危害、防除难度、国内重视程度、耐逆性是导致入侵植物风险性系数升高的重要因素,印加孔雀草在我国的综合风险评估值P为0.82,属于高度风险性有害植物,需要在适生区建立监测预警体系,阻截该植物的扩散蔓延,以保护生态环境和农业可持续发展。By comparing and screening the influencing factors of alien species risk assessment,the scientificity,importance,practicability,and portability of the indicator system were coordinated,and the key factors that determine the risk were selected to construct a typical indicator system for alien plant risk assessment.A mathematical model for measuring the risk of alien invasive plants based on the AHP-DEMATEL method was established from the four dimensions of invasiveness,adaptability,dispersity,and harm to reveal the interdependence between factors,and the direct and indirect relationships between factors were identified and quantified.The risk of Tagetes minuta L.in China was analyzed using the risk assessment indicator system and ecological niche model.The results show that economic hazards,difficulty of prevention,domestic attention and resistance were important factors that lead to the increase of risk coefficient of invasive plants.The comprehensive risk assessment value P of Tagetes minuta L.in China was 0.82.The plant was highly harmful.To prevent the spread of this plant and protect the ecological environment and sustainable agricultural development,it was necessary to establish a monitoring and early warning system in suitable areas.

关 键 词：外来入侵 风险评估 指标权重 AHP-DEMATEL 印加孔雀草 

分 类 号：Q948[生物学—植物学]