前瞻性管理对银行预期信用损失的影响研究——基于58家上市商业银行的分析  

Research on the Impact of Forward-Looking Management on Banks'Expected Credit Losses——An Analysis Based on 58 Listed Commercial Banks

作　　者：尹华锋 Yin Huafeng

机构地区：[1]成都农商银行,四川成都610041

出　　处：《西南金融》2024年第3期67-79,共13页Southwest Finance

摘　　要：作为预期信用损失法实施的关键,前瞻性信息获取及调整是达到预期目标的主要手段,也是与旧准则的根本区别。本文对照国外前瞻性管理先进经验,分析我国商业银行在前瞻性管理上的差距,并选取国内A股、H股上市商业银行前瞻性管理数据进行实证研究。研究发现:前瞻性管理对银行减值准备计提具有显著积极影响,但存在效果不均衡、局部预期过度、缺乏同类可比等问题。建议监管机构加强对商业银行的规范指导和监督管理,完善预期信用损失计量体系,强化市场培育和市场监督。As the key to the implementation of the Expected Credit Loss Methodology,the acquisition and ad⁃justment of forward-looking information are the main means to achieve the expected goals,which is also fundamen⁃tally different from the previous model.This paper analyzes the gaps in forward-looking management of China's commercial banks against the advanced experience of foreign forward-looking management,and selects the for⁃ward-looking management data of domestic A-share and H-share listed commercial banks for empirical research.The study finds that forward-looking management has a significant positive impact on banks'impairment provi⁃sioning,but there are problems such as uneven effects,excessive localized expectations,and lack of similar compa⁃rability.It is suggested that regulators should strengthen the regulatory guidance and supervision of commercial banks,improve the expected credit loss measurement system,and strengthen market cultivation and supervision.

关 键 词：前瞻性管理 预期信用损失 信用风险 风险管理 信息披露 信贷资产 资产减值准备 银行业监管 

分 类 号：F832.33[经济管理—金融学]