基于截断正态分布的继电器多元维纳退化过程建模及可靠性评估  

Modeling and Reliability Evaluation of Multivariate Wiener Degradation Process for Relays Based on Truncated Normal Distribution

作　　者：关欣 刘曦 马琳 刘迈 左天明 GUAN Xin;LIU Xi;MA Lin;LIU Mai;ZUO Tianming(China Certification&Accreditation Institute,Beijing 100020,China)

机构地区：[1]国家市场监督管理总局认证认可技术研究中心,北京100020

出　　处：《电器与能效管理技术》2024年第3期21-29,共9页Electrical & Energy Management Technology

基　　金：河北省自然科学基金资助项目(E2020202221)。

摘　　要：综合利用继电器多元性能参数退化数据建立多元性能退化模型,并开展继电器可靠性评估研究。选取多个继电器参数,考虑模型参数有界性的实际统计特性,建立改进的基于截断正态分布的多元维纳退化模型。针对所建立的模型,提出一种多阶段模型参数估计方法。以可靠度作为继电器可靠性的评价指标,提出基于蒙特卡洛仿真的可靠度近似计算方法,并通过实际案例验证所提方法的精确性和有效性。The reliability evaluation of relays is carried out on the basis of the multi-performance degradation model based on the degradation data of multi-performance parameters of relays.Several relay parameters are selected.An improved multivariate Wiener degradation model based on truncated normal distribution is established considering the actual statistical characteristics of the model parameters boundedness.Aiming at the established performance degradation model,a multi-stage model parameter estimation method is proposed.Taking reliability as the evaluation index of relay reliability,a reliability approximation calculation method based on Monte Carlo simulation is proposed.The accuracy and effectiveness of the method are verified by practical cases.

关 键 词：继电器 多元维纳退化模型 截断正态分布 蒙特卡罗模拟 可靠性评估 

分 类 号：TM581[电气工程—电器]