基于Joinpoint回归模型的2004-2022年湖南省梅毒流行趋势分析  

Joinpoint regression analysis on trends of syphilis reported incidence rate in Hunan Province from 2004 to 2022

作　　者：张静航 高守芝[1] 郑军[1] 陈曦[1] 贺健梅[1] ZHANG Jinghang;GAO Shouzhi;ZHENG Jun;CHEN Xi;HE Jianmei(Hunan Provincial Center for Diseases Control and Prevention,Changsha,410005,Hunan,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南省疾病预防控制中心,长沙410005

出　　处：《中国艾滋病性病》2024年第3期299-302,共4页Chinese Journal of Aids & STD

基　　金：湖南省疾病预防控制中心“青荷”青年培育基金项目(QHJJ2023019)。

摘　　要：目的分析2004-2022年湖南省梅毒流行趋势变化特征,为梅毒防控工作的开展提供依据。方法从中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病监测系统获取2004-2022年湖南省梅毒病例报告资料,拟合Joinpoint回归模型,计算年度变化百分比(APC)和平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)。结果2004-2022年湖南省梅毒报告发病率由1.94/10万上升到38.93/10万(AAPC=17.46%,Z=12.82,P<0.001),分2个时间段分析显示,2004-2010年、2010-2022年APC分别为49.08%(t=12.94,P<0.001)、4.26%(t=3.86,P=0.002)。其中,一期与二期梅毒报告发病率由1.67/10万上升到2.67/10万(AAPC=1.44,Z=0.51,P=0.608),分3个时间段分析显示,2004-2012年、2012-2016年、2016-2022年APC分别为26.59%(t=10.38,P<0.001)、-27.53%(t=-3.09,P=0.010),-5.54%(t=-1.62,P=0.134);三期梅毒报告发病率由0.01/10万上升到0.12/10万(AAPC=10.86%,Z=2.29,P=0.022),分2个时间段分析显示,2004-2010年、2010-2022年APC分别为42.02%(t=3.17,P=0.007)、-2.05%(t=-0.54,P=0.600);隐性梅毒报告发病率由0.20/10万上升到36.13/10万(AAPC=30.86%,Z=10.81,P<0.001),分2个时间段分析显示,2004-2010年、2010-2022年APC分别为88.51%(t=10.37,P<0.001)、9.03%(t=4.04,P=0.001);胎传梅毒报告发病率由5.97/10万下降到0.64/10万(AAPC=-12.05%,Z=-5.36,P<0.001),分2个时间段分析显示,2004-2012年、2012-2022年APC分别为48.47%(t=9.83,P<0.001),-42.15%(t=-19.08,P<0.001)。男性梅毒报告发病率由1.93/10万上升到39.87/10万(AAPC=17.02%,Z=13.19,P<0.001),分2个时间段分析显示,2004-2010年、2010-2022年APC分别为44.20%(t=12.49,P<0.001)、5.42%(t=5.15,P<0.001);女性梅毒报告发病率由1.96/10万上升到37.94/10万(AAPC=17.79%,Z=12.31,P<0.001),分2个时间段分析显示,2004-2010年、2010-2022年APC分别为53.42%(t=13.09,P<0.001)、3.21%(t=2.76,P=0.015)。10~19岁组、20~49岁组、≥50岁组梅毒报告发病率AAPC分别为25.53%(Z=15.39,P<0.001)、14.54%(Z=11.56,P<0.001)、22.81%(Z=11.05,P<0.001)。结论2004-2022年湖南省梅毒报告发病率Objective To investigate the trends of the reported incidence rates of syphilis from 2004 to 2022 and to provide a scientific reference for the control and prevention of syphilis in Hunan Province.Methods The reported syphilis cases have been retrieved from the National Disease Surveillance Information Reporting Management System from 2004 to 2022.The trends of the reported incidence rate of syphilis,annual percent change(APC),and average annual percent change(AAPC)were analyzed using the joinpoint regression model.Results From 2004 to 2022,the reported incidence rate of syphilis increased from 1.94/105 to 38.93/105(AAPC=17.46%,Z=12.82,P<0.001).The APC during the periods 2004-2010 and 2010-2022 were 49.08%(t=12.94,P<0.001)and 4.26%(t=3.86,P=0.002),respectively.Among all reported cases of syphilis,the reported incidence rate of primary and secondary syphilis increased from 1.67/105 to 2.67/105(AAPC=1.44%,t=0.51,P=0.608),the APC during the periods 2004-2012,2012-2016,and 2016-2022 were 26.59%(t=10.38,P<0.001),-27.53%(t=-3.09,P=0.010)and-5.54%(t=-1.62,P=0.134),respectively.The reported incidence rate of tertiary syphilis increased from 0.01/105 to 0.12/105(AAPC=10.86%,Z=2.29,P=0.022),and the APC during the periods 2004-2010,2010-2022 were 42.02%(t=3.17,P=0.007)and-2.05%(t=-0.54,P=0.600),respectively.The rate for latent syphilis also increased from 0.20/105 to 36.13/105(AAPC=30.86%,Z=10.81,P<0.001),and the APC during the periods 2004-2010,2010-2022 were 88.51%(t=10.37,P<0.001)and 9.03%(t=4.04,P=0.001),respectively.The reported incidence rate of fetal syphilis decreased from 5.97/105 to 0.64/105(AAPC=-12.05%,Z=-5.36,P<0.001),and the APC during the periods 2004-2012,2012-2022 were 48.47%(t=9.83,P<0.001)and-42.15%(t=-19.08,P<0.001),respectively.The reported incidence rate of male syphilis increased from 1.93/105 to 39.87/105(AAPC=17.02%,Z=13.19,P<0.001),and the APC during the periods 2004-2010,2010-2022 were 44.20%(t=12.49,P<0.001)and 5.42%(t=5.15,P<0.001),respectively.The reported incidence rate of female syphilis incr

关 键 词：梅毒 Joinpoint回归模型 趋势 

分 类 号：R759.1[医药卫生—皮肤病学与性病学]