主观社会阶层正向预测居民生育意愿  

Subjective Social Class Positively Predicts Residents'Fertility Intentions

作　　者：万丰华 陈思静 WAN Fenghua;CHEN Sijing*(School of Economics and Management,Zhejiang University of Science and Technology,Hangzhou 310023,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江科技大学经济与管理学院,浙江杭州310023

出　　处：《人口与发展》2024年第2期26-38,共13页Population and Development

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“规范错觉影响生育意愿的心理机制及干预策略——基于共同命运模型”(23YJA840002)。

摘　　要：生育意愿能够有效地预测实际生育水平,它受到社会阶层的影响。基于CGSS2010至2017年数据的分析表明:(1)主观社会阶层正向预测生育意愿,这一结果在工具变量内生性检验以及多个稳健性检验中相当稳健。(2)性别平等意识在主观社会阶层和生育意愿之间起到部分中介的作用。(3)异质性分析表明,主观社会阶层对居民生育意愿的影响存在性别和受教育程度异质性。(4)共同命运模型分析表明,家庭层面的主观社会阶层正向预测家庭层面的生育意愿。上述发现有助于完善和丰富国内外生育意愿研究领域的相关理论,并为相关生育政策制定提供科学的理论支持和决策参考。Fertility intentions can effectively predict actual fertility levels and are influenced by social class.Analysis based on data from CGSS2010 to 2017 shows that:(1)subjective social class positively predicts fertility intentions,which is robust in instrumental variable endogeneity tests and multiple robustness checks.(2)Gender equality consciousness plays a partially mediating role between subjective social class and fertility intentions.(3)Heterogeneity analysis shows that the influence of subjective social class on residents'fertility intentions varies by gender and educational level.(4)The analysis of the common fate model shows that the subjective social class at the family level positively predicts fertility intentions at the family level.These findings help to improve and enrich relevant theories in the field of fertility intention research at home and abroad and provide scientific theoretical support and decision-making references for relevant fertility policies.

关 键 词：社会阶层 生育意愿 性别平等意识 共同命运模型 

分 类 号：C912.61[经济管理]