ARIMA模型在阜新地区降水量预测中的适用性分析  

Applicability analysis of ARIMA model in precipitation prediction in Fuxin area

作　　者：郭廓 Guo Kuo(Fuxin Hydrological Bureau,Liaoning Province,Fuxin,123000)

机构地区：[1]辽宁省阜新水文局,辽宁阜新123000

出　　处：《黑龙江水利科技》2024年第4期37-39,79,共4页Heilongjiang Hydraulic Science and Technology

摘　　要：结合阜新地区实测雨量站点数据,建立样本数据系列,结合ARIMA模型对阜新地区降水量进行预测,并进行模型适用性分析。分析表明:ARIMA模型适用于阜新地区的降水量预测,预测误差在±15%以内,且具有较好的回归性。研究成果对于阜新地区水资源量预测评估具有重要参考价值。Based on the measured rainfall station data in Fuxin region,a sample data series was established,and the ARIMA model was used to predict the precipitation in Fuxin region,and the applicability of the model was analyzed.The analysis shows that the ARIMA model is suitable for predicting precipitation in Fuxin region,with a prediction error of±15%and good regression performance.The research results have important reference value for the prediction and evaluation of water resources in the Fuxin region.

关 键 词：雨量站 降水量 预测模型 适用性分析 阜新地区 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]