郑州“7·20”特大暴雨灾害对中国铁路运网的冲击过程和机制  

The impact process and mechanism of the superheavy rainfall event in Zhengzhou on July 20, 2021 on the China's railway transport network

作　　者：刘海洋[1] 王录仓[2] 常跟应[1,3] LIU Haiyang;WANG Lucang;CHANG Genying(College of Earth and Environmental Sciences,Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730030,China;College of Geography and Environmental Science,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,China;Key laboratory of Western China's Environmental Systems,Ministry of Education,Lanzhou 730030,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院,兰州730030 [2]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州730070 [3]兰州大学西部环境教育部重点实验室,兰州730030

出　　处：《地理学报》2024年第3期617-634,共18页Acta Geographica Sinica

摘　　要：特大暴雨是极端天气,其引发的洪涝灾害给社会经济带来严重损失。铁路是国民经济的大动脉,铁路枢纽既是线路连接的中枢,也是客货流集散的中心。发生在枢纽地区的特大暴雨,在网络关联效应等规律的支配下,将灾害影响通过线路向外传导并放大,从而波及整个铁路网。本文基于列车停运数据,系统分析了郑州“7·20”特大暴雨灾害对中国铁路运网的冲击过程和灾情传播机制。结果表明:(1)从冲击初期到冲击中期,中国铁路运网受冲击节点逐渐增多,停运强度从暴雨冲击中心向外围递减,停运线路从局部线路向关联网络扩散,停运网络从受冲击中心中原地区沿“米”型网络向外围蔓延;冲击末期,停运节点数量减少,停运强度降低,停运强度高值节点和停运网络从外围向暴雨冲击中心收缩。(2)不同承灾体面对同一冲击时,运网形态和结构作出的响应存在分异,高铁更敏感,其恢复力更强。(3)停运网络层级性显著,择优链接效应明显,灾情首先传导至直接关联节点和关联线路再进行扩散;层级性减弱时择优链接效应也随之减弱,集聚性降低,区域小集团数量减少,一体化程度增强,传输效率提升;层级性增强则相反。(4)由于运网的一体性、关联性、沿线传导性等特征,导致运网受灾害冲击时,不仅仅在灾害中心发生停运现象,还会涉及相关节点、线路及其关联区域。本文可为提升中国铁路运输综合防灾、减灾能力,实现安全、可靠运营提供科学依据。Superheavy rain is an extreme weather phenomenon,and the resulting flood disasters can cause significant losses to the socio-economy.The railway system serves as the backbone of the national economy,with railway hubs functioning not only as centers for line connections but also as centers for the distribution of passenger and freight flows.Additionally,hubs are subject to the effect of correlated networks and other processes,which suggests that superheavy rain at a given hub propagates and amplifies the impact of this disaster outward through transportation routes,ultimately affecting the entire railway network.In this paper,we systematically analyzed the impact process and disaster propagation mechanism of the Zhengzhou superheavy rainfall event that occurred on July 20,2021,on the railway network of China using disrupted train data.The results showed that:(1)From the early to middle periods of flooding,the number of affected nodes in the railway network of China gradually increased.The intensity of the disruptions decreased from the center of the flooding impact toward the periphery.The disrupted transportation routes expanded from local routes to the interconnected network,and the disrupted network spread from the center of the impact of flooding toward the periphery within the meter-shaped network.At the late period of the flooding impact,the number of disruption nodes and intensity of the disruptions decreased.Nodes with high disruption intensity values and disrupted networks contracted from the periphery toward the center of the flooding impact.(2)When different disaster-bearing bodies(high-speed and conventional railways)face the same impact,the shape and structure of the transportation network respond differently.High-speed railways are more sensitive and exhibit higher resilience.(3)The hierarchical nature of the disruptive network is significant,and the preferential link effect is obvious.The impact of the disaster is first transmitted to directly related nodes and lines before propagating further.When

关 键 词：郑州“7·20”特大暴雨灾害 铁路运网 冲击过程 灾情传播机制 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] U298[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]