厄尔尼诺-南方涛动研究进展  

Progresses of El Niño and Southern Oscillation research

作　　者：张晓琳 马永星 Xiaolin Zhang;Yongxing Ma(Innovation Centre for Ports and Maritime Safety,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian 116085,China;Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences,Kyushu University,744 Motooka,Nishiku,Fukuoka 819-0395,Japan;Fisheries and Oceans Canada,Bedford Institute of Oceanography,Dartmouth B2Y 4A2,Canada)

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学航海学院,大连116085 [2]Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences,Kyushu University,Fukuoka 819-0395,Japan [3]Fisheries and Oceans Canada,Bedford Institute of Oceanography,Dartmouth B2Y 4A2,Canada

出　　处：《科学通报》2024年第8期1047-1057,共11页Chinese Science Bulletin

摘　　要：厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(El Nino and Southern Oscillation,ENSO)对全球气候都具有重要的影响,如印度洋季风、秘鲁沿岸的渔业生产以及北美的气候等.过去的研究在ENSO的观测、理论、预报和数值模拟等方面都取得了长足的进展,但依然有很多问题尚待解决.本文简要地回顾了过去在ENSO的相关理论、预报、非对称性以及年代际变化、古气候下的变化以及数值模拟方面的研究:首先回顾了ENSO盛行的几组理论,具体包括Bjerknes正反馈机制、延迟振子理论、充放电振子理论、平流反射振子理论以及西太平洋振子理论.其次,系统地总结了厄尔尼诺常用的预报方法以及预报因子(如暖水体积、西太平洋风场、印度洋-太平洋风场的积分及赤道流场等),并讨论了目前预报仍然存在的局限性;非对称性和年代际变化是ENSO重要的特征,本文详细地阐述了这方面的相关研究进展及存在的问题.再次,介绍了关于ENSO的古气候研究目前所取得的成果以及主要结论,并对数值模拟方面仍然存在的问题及ENSO对其他海盆的影响进行了讨论;最后,对上述相关方面存在的不足以及亟待解决的问题进行了探讨和总结.El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a quasi-periodic phenomenon with significant global influence,primarily characterized by variations in sea surface temperature across the tropical Pacific and associated oscillations in surface air pressure.Over the past decades,ENSO has been a focal topic of research owing to its profound influence on global climate patterns,impacting phenomena such as the Indian monsoon,Peruvian coastal fisheries,and North American climate.In recent years,with the emergence and application of new tools such as advanced climate models and machine learning in ENSO research,a comprehensive review of past studies could serve to outline the accomplishments made and shed light on the outstanding questions that persist.By integrating these powerful tools,researchers can pursue unresolved questions and further advance our understanding of ENSO dynamics.In this paper,we reviewed past studies on ENSO from both scientific and practical perspectives.As science and practice are often interconnected and inseparable,we structured our paper in a logical sequence,covering classic ENSO theories,forecasting methods,asymmetry and decadal variations,changes in ancient climates,simulated ENSO in climate models,and the impacts of ENSO in other oceans.In the realm of science,we began by discussing some classic theories.We summarized the positive feedback mechanism proposed by Bjerknes for El Niño and highlighted its shortcoming of lacking negative feedback.In addition,we covered various negative feedback mechanisms proposed by others,such as the delayed oscillator,recharge-discharge oscillator,advective–reflective oscillator,and the West Pacific oscillator theories.Furthermore,given that asymmetry and decadal variations are important features of ENSO,we reviewed several relevant studies that proposed different mechanisms,including long Rossby wave dynamics,nonlinear dynamic heating and nonlinear temperature advection.Additionally,we reviewed the studies on ENSO in scenarios of ancient and future climates,reveal

关 键 词：厄尔尼诺-南方涛动 动力学机制 预报 古气候 盐度 海盆间相互作用 

分 类 号：P732[天文地球—海洋科学] P461