近60年福建“龙舟水”期间降水的时空分布及影响因素  

The Spatial and Temporal Distribution and Influencing Factors of“Dragon Boat Water”in Fujian Over the Past 60 Years

作　　者：万子芊 杨云月 邓海军 姜修洋[1,2] WAN Ziqian;YANG Yunyue;DENG Haijun;JIANG Xiuyang(Key Laboratory for Humid Subtropical Eco-geographical Process of the Ministry of Education,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350117,China;Institute of Geography,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350117,China)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学湿润亚热带生态地理过程教育部重点实验室,福州350117 [2]福建师范大学地理研究所,福州350117

出　　处：《亚热带资源与环境学报》2024年第1期77-83,共7页Journal of Subtropical Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42071106);福建对外合作项目(2022I0013)。

摘　　要：每年5月中旬左右,南海夏季风爆发后“龙舟水”给福建地区带来大量的降雨,短时强降雨易引起积涝的风险,对人民生产生活造成巨大的影响,但其背后的影响机制仍不清楚。本研究基于福建省60个气象站1962-2021年降水监测资料,采用主成分分析、合成分析、小波分析等方法重建了近60年来福建“龙舟水”期间降水的时空变化特征。结果显示,在年际尺度上福建“龙舟水”整体呈现出先下降后增加的趋势,其中在1981-1995年明显趋于偏少,而空间上自东南向西北呈增加趋势。“龙舟水”的长期趋势与副热带高压活动(以下简称副高)存在着反相关关系,即副高弱时其位置偏东,“龙舟水”偏多;而副高强时,位置偏西,“龙舟水”则偏少。此外,在El Nino年时,季风爆发相对较晚,“龙舟水”偏少;而在La Nina年,夏季风爆发相对较早,“龙舟水”较多。“龙舟水”从20世纪70年代中后期开始到21世纪初期与ENSO存在5~7 a的共同周期,进一步说明在年代际尺度上ENSO对龙舟水起着重要的调控作用。Each year around mid-May,the summer monsoon in the South China Sea delivers substantial rainfall to Fujian Province,a climatic phenomenon locally known as“Dragon Boat Water”.This event not only brings replenishing rains,but also raises the potential for water-logging,as well as posing threats to urban safety and hindering socioeconomic development.Despite the significant impact,the underlying mechanisms influencing this phenomenon in China's southeastern province remain largely unexplored.Utilizing daily precipitation data sourced from 60 meteorological stations across Fujian Province,combined with NCEP/NCAR reanalyzed monthly average wind and sea level pressure data,and NOAA reconstructed monthly average sea surface temperature(SST)data spanning from 1962 to 2021,this study aimed to delineate the spatial and temporal variations in“Dragon Boat Water”events over the past six decades.The results revealed that the“Dragon Boat Water”episodes have followed a pattern of initial decrease,succeeded by an increase.Specifically,these events diminished between 1981 and 1995,exhibited a resurgence thereafter,progressively intensifying from the southeast to the northwest.A notable inverse relationship was discerned between the long-term trend of“Dragon Boat Water”and the activity of the subtropical high:a weaker subtropical high correlated with greater easterly positioning and increased“Dragon Boat Water”,whereas a stronger high corresponded with a more westward position and diminished“Dragon Boat Water”.Furthermore,El Nino years were characterized by a later onset of the monsoon season and less“Dragon Boat Water”,whereas La Nina years experienced an earlier onset of the summer monsoon and a corresponding increase in“Dragon Boat Water”.The study identified a recurrent 5~7 year cycle linking“Dragon Boat Water”with the ENSO phenomenon from the late 1970s to the early 21st century,underscoring the pivotal role of ENSO in modulating“Dragon Boat Water”on an interdecadal scale.

关 键 词：“龙舟水” 年际变化 时空分布 成因分析 福建 

分 类 号：P426.615[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]