基于组合权重和改进的MARCOS配电网设备风险评估方法  

Assessment of Distribution Network Equipment Risks Based on Combined Weighting and Modified MARCOS

作　　者：梁小侠 谢军 田永川 余是全 邹黎敏 LIANG Xiaoxia;XIE Jun;TIAN Yongchuan;YU Shiquan;ZOU Limin(School of Mathematics and Statistics,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆工商大学数学与统计学院,重庆400067

出　　处：《电工技术》2024年第5期117-121,共5页Electric Engineering

基　　金：重庆市自然科学基金面上项目(编号2023NSCQ-MSX0634)。

摘　　要：配电网设备风险评估对电力系统运行的安全性、稳定性和可靠性均具有重要意义。针对现有研究结果易受人为主观因素影响的问题,提出了基于组合赋权和改进的MARCOS配电网设备风险评估方法。首先,分别利用熵权法和CRITIC方法计算各指标权重,进而采用最小鉴别信息原理进行组合得到组合权重;然后利用改进的MARCOS方法,计算各待评估配电网设备的效用函数,根据效用函数值对各设备的风险程度进行排序;最后通过实例分析,验证了所提方法的有效性。该方法不受人为主观因素影响,充分利用原始数据特点,反映实际情况,因此所得结果更加客观,可信度更高。The risk assessment of distribution network equipment is of great significance to safe,stable and reliable operation of power system.In view of susceptibility of existing research results to human subjective factors,a risk assessment method for distribution network equipment based on combined weighting and modified MARCOS method is proposed.First entropy weight method and CRITIC method are used to calculate weights of all individual indices,and then principle of least identifying information is used for weight combination.Then the modified MARCOS method is used to calculate the utility function of each equipment to be evaluated,and the risk degree of each equipment is ranked according to the utility function value.Finally effectiveness of the proposed method is verified through case analysis.This method is not affected by human subjective factors,can achieve full use of characteristics of original data and reflect actual situation,and hence is more objective and more credible in result acquring.

关 键 词：熵权法 CRITIC方法 组合权重 MARCOS方法 配电网设备风险 

分 类 号：O212[理学—概率论与数理统计] TM732[理学—数学] TP39[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]