长江流域旱涝急转演变特征及其社会经济暴露度  

Evolution characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alternation events in Yangtze River basin and its socio-economic exposure

作　　者：孟长青 董子娇 王远坤 张余庆 钟德钰[3,4,5] MENG Changqing;DONG Zijiao;WANG Yuankun;ZHANG Yuqing;ZHONG Deyu(School of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China;School of Urban and Environmental Sciences,Huaiyin Normal University,Huai'an 223300,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Key Laboratory of Hydrosphere Sciences of the Ministry of Water Resources,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;Department of Hydraulic Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学水利与水电工程学院,北京102206 [2]淮阴师范学院城市与环境学院,江苏淮安223300 [3]清华大学水圈科学与水利工程全国重点实验室,北京100084 [4]清华大学水利部水圈科学重点实验室,北京100084 [5]清华大学水利水电工程系,北京100084

出　　处：《水力发电学报》2024年第4期34-49,共16页Journal of Hydroelectric Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41901028;52279064)。

摘　　要：旱涝急转是指干旱和洪水之间的快速转变,对农业生产和人类安全造成巨大威胁。本研究基于月尺度的旱涝急转量级指数,分析了长江流域历史和未来四种旱涝急转事件,并通过滑窗法构建了旱涝急转量级的时变函数,揭示了未来旱涝急转风险变化。同时,结合共享社会经济路径量化了人口和经济受旱涝急转风险变化影响的程度。结果显示,历史时期长江流域中下游旱涝急转事件频发,旱–涝和涝–旱事件每10年发生10~12次,而旱–涝–旱和涝–旱–涝事件每10年发生3~4次。未来旱–涝–旱和涝–旱–涝事件预计大幅增加,其中长江上游部分地区增长了约7倍。对于历史基准期50年一遇的旱涝急转事件,未来发生概率将增加5~10倍,给长江流域的人口和经济带来重大影响。Drought-flood abrupt alternation(DFAA)refers to a rapid transformation between droughts and floods,which poses great threats to agricultural production and human security.This study,based on the monthly scale magnitude index of DFAA,analyzes four types of historical and future DFAA events in the Yangtze River basin.A time-varying function for the magnitude of DFAA is constructed using a sliding window approach,revealing the future changes in DFAA risk.Shared socio-economic pathways are integrated to quantify the impact extent of changing risk of DFAA on population and economy.The results show that in historical periods,the hotspots of the DFAA events were mainly distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the basin,with drought-flood and flood-drought events occurring 10-12 times per decade,and drought-flood-drought and flood-drought-flood events occurring 3-4 times per decade.Drought-flood-drought and flood-drought-flood events are projected to significantly increase in the future for the whole basin,and parts of it will experience a growth of approximately seven times.For the historically recorded 50-year DFAA events,the probability of their occurrence will increase by 5 to 10 times in the future,and the population and economy of the basin will be significantly affected.

关 键 词：旱涝急转 标准化降水蒸散指数 第六次国际耦合模式比较计划 人口暴露 长江流域 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]