能耗双控转向碳双控的政策影响评估——基于安徽省动态CGE模型  

Impact of transition from the energy consumption“dual control”to the carbon“dual control”:a CGE-based case study of Anhui

作　　者：安康欣 刘米可 范淑婷 王灿[1] AN Kang-xin;LIU Mi-ke;FAN Shu-ting;WANG Can(School of Environment,Tsinghua University,Beijing,100084)

机构地区：[1]清华大学环境学院,北京100084

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2024年第4期1795-1804,共10页China Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金-国际(地区)合作与交流项目(T2261129475);国家自然科学基金资助项目(72348001)。

摘　　要：通过以安徽省为案例构建混合动态可计算一般均衡模型,分析能耗双控优化以及转向碳双控的能源经济影响.研究发现,扣除新增可再生能源显著促进能耗双控政策支持可再生能源的作用并改善经济有效性,2035年可再生能源发电占比达到27.9%,而GDP损失降低0.2个百分点;转向碳双控政策会进一步促进可再生能源发展、腾挪能源消费空间并提高经济效率,GDP损失率进一步下降0.05个百分点;控制政策会产生赢家和输家行业,转向碳双控政策将会降低输家行业产出损失,2035年行业产出的变化率在-20.6%至10.3%之间.建议坚持实施能耗双控制度优化措施并在“十五五”时期向碳双控政策过渡,匹配以前瞻性的产业布局和必要的公正转型措施来降低产业调整的不利影响,在降低短期政策调整波动的同时促进中长期“双碳”目标实现.Using Anhui Province as a case study,a hybrid dynamic computable general equilibrium model was developed to analyze the energy-economic impacts of optimizing the energy consumption“dual control”and transitioning to the carbon“dual control”policy.The study found that excluding newly installed renewable energy within the energy“dual control”policy can significantly bolster the support for renewable energy development and improvement of energy efficiency.By 2035,the proportion of renewable energy in electricity generation is expected to reach 27.9%,with a corresponding reduction in GDP loss of 0.2 percentage points.Transitioning to the carbon"dual control"policy is projected to further promote renewable energy development,create additional space for energy consumption,and enhance economic efficiency,with an additional reduction in GDP loss of 0.05 percentage points.The implementation of control policies will result in both winners and losers across various industries,while shifting to the carbon"dual control"policy could mitigate output losses in the losing industries.The industry output change rates range from-20.6% to 10.3% by 2035.The recommendation is to persist in implementing optimized measures for the energy consumption"dual control"system and to gradually transition to the carbon"dual control"policy during the 15th Five-Year Plan period.This should be aligned with forward-looking industrial planning and necessary just transition measures to reduce the adverse impacts to industries,while concurrently facilitating the achievement of medium-and long-term dual carbon targets amidst the minimization of short-term policy adjustment fluctuations.

关 键 词：能耗双控 碳双控 安徽省 可计算一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程]