跨境资本与人民币汇率的非对称波动耦合效应  

Asymmetric Fluctuation Coupling Effect of Cross-border Capital Flows and RMB Exchange Rate

作　　者：金政 李湛[1] 胡文伟[3] JIN Zheng;LI Zhan;HU Wenwei(Institute of Applied Economics,Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences,Shanghai 200023,China;Shanghai Headquarters of the People’s Bank of China,Shanghai 200120,China;School of Management,Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201620,China)

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院应用经济研究所,上海200023 [2]中国人民银行上海总部,上海200120 [3]上海工程技术大学管理学院,上海201620

出　　处：《同济大学学报（自然科学版）》2024年第4期637-646,共10页Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金(21FJLB014);上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(2023ZJB007)。

摘　　要：构建向量误差修正‒广义自回归条件异方差‒非对称BEKK(VECM-GARCH-ABEKK)模型,从产业资本和金融资本两个维度,研究跨境资本与人民币汇率波动的非对称耦合效应。研究发现,产业资本和金融资本与人民币汇率具有显著的持续性、集聚性波动特征,且两类跨境资本与人民币汇率之间的波动溢出存在差异化的非对称耦合效应。研究提出优先针对产业资本外流风险出台相关政策,构建“宏观审慎+微观监管”监管框架,降低外汇市场超调风险,利用人民币离岸交易构筑资本跨境流动缓冲区等对策建议。This paper aims at investigating the asymmetric fluctuation coupling effect of cross-border capital flows and RMB exchange rate through two dimensions of industrial capital flows and financial capital flows.The result shows that both capital flows(industrial and financial capital flows)and the exchange rate have a significant continuous and clustering fluctuation.Besides,there are differential asymmetric fluctuation coupling effects between the two types of capital flows and the exchange rate.This paper proposes policy recommendations such as giving priority to introducing policy arrangements for coping with industrial capital outflows risks,improving the framework for administration featuring“macro-prudential management plus micro-supervision”and reducing the overshooting risk of foreign exchange market,and building a buffer zone for capital flows by improving the RMB offshore transactions.

关 键 词：跨境资本流动 汇率 波动溢出 非对称耦合效应 向量误差修正‒广义自回归条件异方差‒非对称BEKK模型 

分 类 号：F831.7[经济管理—金融学]