京津冀城市群综合承灾能力时空异质性研究  

Spatial-temporal evolution of comprehensive disaster-bearing capacity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration

作　　者：王威[1] 杨佩 郭聪[1] 王志涛[1] WANG Wei;YANG Pei;GUO Cong;WANG Zhitao(Faculty of Architecture,Civil and Transportation Engineering,Beijing University of Technology,Beijing 100124,China)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学城市建设学部,北京100124

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2024年第3期1143-1152,共10页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52278472);北京市自然科学基金项目(8232004);北京市教委社科计划一般项目(047000514122630)。

摘　　要：基于2010—2020年京津冀城市群13个城市的调查数据,应用Kernel密度估计方法、空间自相关模型及Dagum基尼系数,分析不同时期京津冀城市群综合承灾能力时空动态演进分布格局及地区差异。结果表明:(1)在时间维度,2010—2020年京津冀城市群综合承灾能力总体呈现逐渐上升趋势,但京津冀城市群各市之间的承灾能力水平差距逐渐增大,区域整体呈现非均衡特征;(2)在空间维度,2010—2020年京津冀城市群综合承灾能力在空间分布上关联度较低,不存在显著的集聚或分散特征,但有局部地区产生聚集特点,属于“高-高”“低-低”空间聚集型城市较多,在此期间京津冀城市群综合承灾能力呈现空间集聚与空间分异并存;(3)京津冀城市群综合承灾能力的总体差异呈现上升趋势,北京-河北地区间差异最大,地区间差异是总体差异的主要来源。掌握京津冀城市群综合承灾能力的时空分布变化规律,并制订相应的防灾策略是京津冀城市群有效应对外部冲击以及实现京津冀地区协同与高质量发展国家战略的重要支撑。The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is a disaster-prone area,with increasing safety risks and gradually emerging vulnerability and weakness of urban comprehensive disaster-bearing capacity,which seriously hinders urban development.Based on this,based on the survey data of 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 2010 to 2020,this paper determines the index system of urban comprehensive disaster-bearing capacity from four aspects:prevention,resistance,rescue,and recovery ability,and uses the combined weight method to determine the weight of each index.On this basis,a Kernel density estimation method,spatial autocorrelation model and Dagum Gini coefficient were applied to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of comprehensive disaster-bearing capacity from three aspects:time,space,and difference analysis.The results show that:(1)Time dimension:from 2010 to 2020,the comprehensive disaster-bearing capacity of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration shows a gradual upward trend,but the gap between the disaster-bearing capacity of the cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration is gradually increasing.The comprehensive disaster-bearing capacity of Hebei province is relatively low,and there is still a large gap between Beijing and Tianjin,showing a disequilibrium feature as a whole.(2)Spatial dimension:From 2010 to 2020,the comprehensive disaster-bearing capacity of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration has a low correlation in spatial distribution,with no significant agglomeration or dispersion characteristics,but some areas have aggregation characteristics.There are many cities belonging to the“high-high”and“low-low”spatial clustering types.During this period,the comprehensive disaster-bearing capacity of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration showed the coexistence of spatial clustering and spatial differentiation.(3)The overall disaster-bearing capacity of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomerations showed an increasing tren

关 键 词：公共安全 京津冀城市群 承灾力 时空演化 异质性 

分 类 号：X948[环境科学与工程—安全科学]