防控背景下城市轨道TOD对传染病传播影响分析  

Influences of Urban Rail Transit TOD(transit-oriented development)on Epidemic Spreading based on the Background of Epidemic Prevention and Control

作　　者：张威涛 ZHANG Weitao

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学建筑与艺术学院

出　　处：《南方建筑》2024年第4期89-96,共8页South Architecture

基　　金：2023年度教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(23YJCZH303):交通和用地协同发展背景下城市轨道站域传染病传播的影响机制和风险识别研究;世界银行全球环境基金GEF国际合作项目(7204890):Consultancy for Summary Reports and Multimedia Dissemination for GEF6 China SCIAP Project(TOD中国可持续城市发展试点项目总结报告);中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目(2020M680332):基于复杂适应系统理论的城市适灾景观勘测模型与规划响应研究。

摘　　要：城市轨道交通TOD模式通过沿线大运量通勤和站区规模化服务,承载了人口的大规模流动和公共性聚集,理论上会以站区为核心,造成从沿线地区至更广泛辐射地区的传染病传播。然而,以2020年北京新发地新冠肺炎疫情为例,对北京主城区133个街道做有序Logistic回归分析发现,在传染病防控治理背景下,轨道交通TOD没有显著引起沿线街道传染病传播风险增加。其中,街道之间除常住人口规模外,多项资源条件的不平衡没有导致传染病传播风险分布的显著差异。进一步通过Spearman相关性分析发现,换乘站和区域站对传染病传播风险的升级影响仅表现在更远离轨道辐射的街道。分析结果一方面反映出彼时我国以北京为典型的城市疫情防控治理效果,另一方面也凸显了远离轨道辐射、人口活动具有内循环特征地区的防控挑战。The global coronavirus pandemic has severely tested the ability of cities to respond to major public health emergencies.COVID-19(Corona Virus Disease 2019,COVID-19)is an infectious disease spread by air and contact,with human-to-human transmissions.Humans are both the cause and the recipients of this disaster.With the basic properties of population gathering and movement,cities have become hotbeds for the spread of infectious diseases.The TOD(transit-oriented development,TOD)mode of urban rail transit enables the large-scale movement and public gathering of the urban population through mass commuting and large-scale services along and in station areas.Theoretically,this may cause large-scaled spreading of infectious diseases from station areas to more extensive areas along the rail line.However,an empirical study of the actual influences of TOD on infectious disease transmission based on prevention and control is needed.This can provide information for the tracking and spreading spatial patterns of infectious diseases under the effects of prevention and control.Firstly,a reasonable hypothesis that TOD affects the largescaled transmission of infectious diseases was proposed based on the interaction mechanism between population activity and infectious disease transmission.A variable system of influences of TOD on infectious disease transmission was designed.Secondly,a statistical analysis of the influences of TOD on the risk of COVID-19 transmission in streets of main urban areas in Beijing based on the urban prevention and control strategies in 2020 was carried out.Finally,it was concluded that TOD influenced spatial characteristics of infectious disease transmission.Realistic scenarios and theoretical hypotheses were compared.Results provided references for the study of urban-infectious disease transmissions under based on prevention and control strategies from the perspective of TOD.Specifically,an ordered logistic regression analysis was conducted on 133 blocks in the main urban area of Beijing.The scale of con

关 键 词：城市轨道交通 TOD 防控治理 传染病传播 

分 类 号：TU997[建筑科学—市政工程]