暴雨灾害下的建筑施工现场风险评价研究  

Study on risk assessment at construction sites under torrential rain disasters

作　　者：李蒙[1] 陈诗明 曾雅丝 LI Meng;CHEN Shiming;ZENG Yasi(School of Management,Wuhan University of Science and Technology,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉科技大学管理学院,武汉430070

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2024年第4期1304-1313,共10页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：国家级大学生创新创业计划项目(202110488013)。

摘　　要：为了准确判断施工现场在突降暴雨情况下的安全状态,采用贝叶斯最优最劣法(Bayesian Best Worst Method,BBWM)和云模型方法,提出暴雨灾害下的建筑施工现场风险评价模型,以确定施工现场在遭受暴雨灾害时的风险等级。该模型利用了压力状态响应模型(Pressure State Response,PSR)和灾害系统理论,在考虑致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境稳定性、承灾体脆弱性和减灾能力抵御性4方面的基础上,构建18个风险因素的施工现场风险评价指标体系,并以武汉市某施工现场为例进行验证。结果显示,施工现场的减灾能力抵御性处于最重要的地位,做好现场减灾应对措施对灾害有非常重要的帮助;案例项目的评价结果处于一般风险状态,与现场实际情况相符。To accurately judge the safety status of construction sites under sudden torrential rainfall,the pressure-state-response model and the disaster system theory were employed in this study.Based on considerations of the hazard potential of causative factors,the stability of disaster-prone environments,the vulnerability of exposed elements,and the resilience of disaster reduction capabilities,an assessment framework comprising 18 risk factors was established for construction site risk evaluation.Furthermore,the evaluation of these indicators took into account the combination of qualitative and quantitative data,as well as the characteristics of fuzziness and randomness.By utilizing a Bayesian Best Worst Method,weights were assigned to each evaluation indicator,and a cloud model was employed to identify the safety status of the project,thereby establishing a risk assessment model for construction sites during rainstorm disasters.The proposed model effectively integrates the perspectives of multiple experts by employing probabilistic events for modeling,thereby facilitating the capture of experts'subjective judgments in a more accessible and accurate manner.Simultaneously,the model encompasses uncertainties by comprehensively considering multiple evaluation indicators,enabling a better treatment of uncertainty issues in the assessment process and yielding a comprehensive evaluation outcome that assists decision-makers in obtaining a more comprehensive understanding of the risk situation.Finally,a case study was conducted at a construction site in Wuhan City to validate the model.The results indicate that within the primary indicators,the resilience of disaster reduction measures at the construction site holds the utmost importance,emphasizing the significance of implementing effective disaster reduction measures to cope with hazards.Among the secondary indicators,the complexity of the surrounding environment emerges as the most critical factor influencing the safety of the construction site during rainstorm disasters.T

关 键 词：安全工程 施工现场风险 暴雨灾害 云模型 贝叶斯最优最劣法 风险评价 

分 类 号：X947[环境科学与工程—安全科学]