港口船舶溢油事故应急联防建设区域划分及主体选择评价  

Regional division and construction subjects selection evaluation of emergency joint prevention construction of ship oil spill accidents in port

作　　者：胡超 刘桂云[1,2] 白佳兴[1,2] 胡俊林 HU Chao;LIU Guiyun;BAI Jiaxing;HU Junlin(Faculty of Maritime and Transportation,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315832,China;Marine Economic Research Center,East China Sea Research Institute,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,China)

机构地区：[1]宁波大学海运学院,宁波315832 [2]宁波大学东海研究院经济研究中心,宁波315211

出　　处：《水道港口》2024年第1期140-148,共9页Journal of Waterway and Harbor

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52272334);高等学校学科创新引智计划(111计划)资助项目(D21013)。

摘　　要：在一定的区域范围内建立港口船舶溢油事故区域应急联防体系,对于促进联防区域内应急资源共享、提高船舶污染事故应急能力具有重要意义。基于区域间各个码头的航路网络,利用ArcGIS软件的空间分析工具进行时间可达性分析,确定符合有效应急时效的联防建设区域。进而,从码头泊位情况、溢油事故参数、货物吞吐量、管理水平等方面分析了影响区域联防建设的因素,并基于主成分分析-BP神经网络方法建立了码头区域联防建设主体评价模型。研究表明,得到的应急联防建设区域划分及主体选择评价模型能够客观地反应评价对象的真实情况。在应急联防建设中,可以根据实际需求,参考评价结果选择建设方案。It is of great significance to establish a regional emergency joint prevention system for port ship oil spill accidents within a certain regional scope for promoting the sharing of emergency resources in the joint prevention area and improving the emergency response capability of ship pollution accidents.Based on the route network among the terminals,the spatial analysis tool of ArcGIS software was used to analyze the time accessibility,and the area of joint defense construction meeting the effective emergency was determined.Furthermore,the factors affecting the construction of regional joint defense were analyzed from the aspects of berth conditions,oil spill accident parameters,cargo throughput,management level,etc.,and the evaluation model for construction subjects of regional joint defense was established based on the principal component-BP neural network method.The results show that the emergency joint defense construction area division method and construction subjects selection evaluation model can objectively reflect the true situation of the evaluation object.In the construction of emergency joint defense,the construction scheme can be selected according to the actual needs and the evaluation results.

关 键 词：区域联防 可达性分析 主成分分析 BP神经网络 建设主体 

分 类 号：U698.5[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]