中国旅游经济韧性的区域差异及分布动态演进  

Regional Differences and Dynamic Evolution of Tourism Economic Resilience in China

作　　者：杨秀平[1] 秦雨露 YANG Xiuping;QIN Yulu(School of Economics and Management,Lanzhou University of Technology,Lanzhou 730050,Gansu,China)

机构地区：[1]兰州理工大学经济管理学院,甘肃兰州730050

出　　处：《国土资源科技管理》2024年第2期90-105,共16页Scientific and Technological Management of Land and Resources

基　　金：甘肃省哲学社会科学规划项目(2023YB015)。

摘　　要：旅游经济韧性与旅游经济高质量发展密不可分,提升旅游经济韧性对促进旅游经济高质量发展具有重要意义。本文从抵御能力、恢复能力、重构能力和学习能力四个维度构建旅游经济韧性评价指标体系,运用熵权TOPSIS法对2011—2020年中国30个省域旅游经济韧性进行测度,采用Dagum基尼系数、核密度估计和Markov链探讨区域差异和分布动态演进特征。结果表明:(1)2011—2020年中国旅游经济韧性处于波动上升状态,年均增长率达到3.53%,东部、中部和西部地区的旅游经济韧性发展趋势与全国平均水平趋势保持一致,呈现出由东向西递减的空间格局,但其增长速度呈现中部最高、西部其次、东部最小的特征。(2)2011—2020年全国旅游经济韧性总体差异呈波动下降趋势,区域内差异呈现出“东部>中部>西部”的空间分布格局,东部与西部地区的区域间差异最大,区域间差异是总体差异的主要来源。(3)全国旅游经济韧性处在上升态势,绝对差异有明显扩大的趋势,且存在明显的极化现象。三大地区旅游经济韧性也呈现上升趋势,东部地区内绝对差异有缩小趋势,中部和西部地区内绝对差异有所扩大,东部地区极化现象有所缓解,中部地区极化现象显著,西部地区极化现象逐渐凸显。(4)旅游经济韧性具有较强的稳定性,存在俱乐部趋同效应。转移概率不仅受到滞后水平的影响,还要受到旅游经济韧性初始等级的影响。Tourism economic resilience is closely related to the high-quality development of tourism economy.Improving tourism economic resilience is of great significance for promoting high-quality development of tourism economy.This paper constructs an evaluation index system of tourism economic resilience from four dimensions:resistance,recovery,reconstruction and learning.The entropy weight TOPSIS method was used to measure the tourism economic resilience in 30 provinces of China from 2011 to 2020.The Dagum Gini coefficient,kernel density estimation and Markov chain are used to investigate the regional differences and the dynamic evolution characteristics.The results indicate that:(1)From 2011 to 2020,China’s tourism economic resilience is in a fluctuating and rising state,with an average annual growth rate of 3.53%.The development trend of tourism economic resilience in the eastern,central and western regions is consistent with the national average trend,showing a trend of The spatial pattern decreases from east to west,but its growth rate is highest in the central part,second in the west,and smallest in the east.(2)From 2011 to 2020,the overall difference of tourism economic resilience in China showed afluctuating downward trend,and the spatial distribution pattern of intra-regional differences was“east>central>west”.The inter-regional difference between the eastern and western regions is the largest,and the inter-regional difference is the main source of the overall difference.(3)Tourism economic resilience is on the rise,and the absolute difference is obviously expanding.There is an obvious polarization phenomenon.Tourism economic resilience in the three regions also shows an upward trend.The absolute difference in the eastern region has a decreasing trend,while the absolute difference in the central region and western region has expanded.The polarization phenomenon in the eastern region has eased,the polarization phenomenon in the central region is significant,and the polarization phenomenon in the western r

关 键 词：旅游经济韧性 Dagum基尼系数 核密度估计 MARKOV链 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]