A Tale of Two“Skewness”:Managerial Epidemic Experience,Probability Weighting and Financial Market Stability  

作　　者：Gu Leilei Ni Xiaoran Peng Yuchao 

机构地区：[1]Business School,Central University of Finance and Economics [2]School of Economics,Xiamen University [3]School of Finance and Belt&Road Finance Institute,Central University of Finance and Economics

出　　处：《Social Sciences in China》2024年第1期157-181,共25页中国社会科学（英文版）

基　　金：the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.72203249);Peng acknowledges financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71903208,72273160).

摘　　要：Under probability weighting,entrepreneurs with skewness preference tend to seek rightskewed and avoid left-skewed risks.We show that Chinese firms managed by CEOs with professional epidemic experience,i.e.,who previously experienced the outbreak of SARS during their tenure as high level executives,have a lower stock price crash risk measured by the negative skewness of stock prices in subsequent periods.In particular,those firms intentionally avoid stock price crashes by adopting more conservative strategies in decisionmaking.Overall,we provide the first evidence on the unintended effect of entrepreneurs'subjective judgments of the probabilities of disease outbreaks on financial market stability.These have long-term implications for the financial system.

关 键 词：SARS epidemic experience probability weighting skewness preference stock price crash risk 

分 类 号：F83[经济管理—金融学]