传染率季节性和流动人口对麻疹动态的影响  

Effects of Seasonal Transmission and Floating Population on the Dynamics of Measles

作　　者：韩世峰 翟夏菲 赵继军[1] HAN Shifeng;ZHAI Xiafei;ZHAO Jijun(Institute of Complexity Sinence,Qingdao University,Qingdao 266071,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛大学复杂性科学研究所,山东青岛266071

出　　处：《复杂系统与复杂性科学》2024年第1期139-144,共6页Complex Systems and Complexity Science

摘　　要：为分析传染率季节性和流动人口对于河南省的麻疹动态的影响,比较分析麻疹的传染率季节性变化模式,对中国麻疹的未来防控提供理论支持。建立了包含流动人口和传染率季节性阶梯模型的SIR模型,使用马尔科夫蒙特卡洛方法估计模型中的参数,比较本地流动人群和省外流动人群的传染率,分析不同传染率模型对传播动态的影响。在河南的麻疹传播动态中,省外流动人群对麻疹传播动态的影响大于本地人群,河南传染率季节性变化模式更符合阶梯变化,流动人口对于河南麻疹传播动态的影响高于传染率季节性。在未来的麻疹防控工作中应该加强对流动人口的监测,合理选择免疫接种时间和人群。This paper analyzes the influence of seasonality of infection rate and floating population on measles dynamics in Henan province,compares and analyzes the seasonal variation pattern of measles infection rate,and provides theoretical support for the future prevention and control of measles in China.In this paper,a SIR model including the seasonal ladder model of migrant population and infection rate was established,and the parameters in the model were estimated using the Markov Monte Carlo method,the infection rate of local mobile population and the migrant population outside the province was compared,and the influence of different infection rate models on transmission dynamics was analyzed.In the measles transmission dynamics in Henan,the influence of migrant population outside the province on measles transmission dynamics was greater than that of the local population,and the seasonal change pattern of infection rate in Henan was more in line with the step change,and the influence of migrant population on measles transmission dynamics in Henan was higher than that of seasonal infection rate.In the future measles prevention and control work,we should strengthen the monitoring of the migrant population and reasonably choose the time and population of immunization.

关 键 词：麻疹 传染率 季节性 春运 开学放假 MCMC 

分 类 号：R512.5[医药卫生—内科学] R181[医药卫生—临床医学]