山西省1961—2022年典型区域降水变化特征分析  

Analysis of precipitation change characteristics in typical regions of Shanxi Province from 1961 to 2022

作　　者：裴克莉 李文娟 赵丽平 王扬[2] 续梦琳 PEI Keli;LI Wenjuan;ZHAO Liping;WANG Yang;XU Menglin(Shanxi Meteorological Service Center,Taiyuan 030002,China;Shanxi Meteorological Observatory,Taiyuan 030006,China;Shanxi Jiezheng Meteorological Information Technology Co.,Ltd.,Taiyuan 030099,China)

机构地区：[1]山西省气象服务中心,山西太原030002 [2]山西省气象台,山西太原030006 [3]山西捷正气象信息技术有限公司,山西太原030099

出　　处：《甘肃科学学报》2024年第2期1-9,共9页Journal of Gansu Sciences

基　　金：2023年中国气象局复盘总结专项:2022年山西强降水过程极端性及可预报性分析(FPZJ2023-018);山西省应用基础研究面上基金项目(202203021221035)。

摘　　要：基于山西省典型区域(晋北地区、太原市和晋南地区)1961—2022年22个国家气象观测站的降水资料,应用气候倾向率、M-K(Mann-Kendall)趋势分析和突变检验方法,探究山西省典型区域的降水变化特征。结果表明:(1)近62年,山西省典型区域降水量符合山西省北少南多的纬向分布特征,且南部降水年际波动幅度较北部大。(2)三地降水分配情况均为夏季>秋季>春季>冬季,晋南地区夏季降水占比低于晋北地区和太原市,而春秋冬季降水占比高于两地。(3)降水年际变化趋势不同,晋北地区年降水呈增加趋势,太原市和晋南地区呈减少趋势。M-K突变分析表明,太原市和晋南地区年降水量在1965年发生了由多到少的突变,此外2020年左右太原市仍存在降水突变。(4)三地不同阶段变化趋势相同,1961—1981年为波动减少的多雨期,1982—2002年为波动减少的少雨期,1983—2022年为波动增加的多雨期。(5)四季降水变化趋势不同,晋北地区和太原市除夏季呈减少趋势外,春、秋、冬季呈现不同程度的增加趋势;晋南地区除冬季呈较显著增加趋势外,春、夏、秋季呈不同程度的减少趋势;各地四季降水均量存在不同程度的突变。The precipitation data of 22 national meteorological stations in typical areas of Shanxi Province(northern Shanxi,Taiyuan and southern Shanxi)from 1961 to 2022 were used to explore the characteristics of precipitation changes in typical areas of Shanxi Province by using climate tendency rate,Mann-Kendall(M-K)trend analysis and mutation test.The results showed that:(1)In the past 62 years,the precipitation in typical areas of Shanxi Province conformed to the zonal distribution characteristics of less in the north and more in the south of Shanxi Province,and the interannual fluctuation of precipitation in the south was larger than that in the north.(2)The distribution of precipitation in three places was:summer>autumn>spring>winter.The proportion of summer precipitation in southern Shanxi was lower than that in northern Shanxi and Taiyuan,while the proportion of spring,autumn and winter precipitation was higher than that in the other two places.(3)The interannual variation trend of precipitation was different.The annual precipitation in northern Shanxi showed an increasing trend,while that in Taiyuan and southern Shanxi showed a decreasing trend.M-K mutation analysis showed that the annual precipitation in Taiyuan and southern Shanxi had a mutation from more to less in 1965.(4)The change trend of different stages in the three places was the same.1961-1981 was a rainy period with reduced fluctuations,1982-2002 was a rainy period with reduced fluctuations,and 1983-2022 was a high precipitation period with increased fluctuations.(5)The variation trend of precipitation in four seasons was different.In addition to the decreasing trend in summer,the precipitation in northern Shanxi and Taiyuan showed an increasing trend in spring,autumn and winter,while in southern Shanxi,excepted for a significant increase in winter,there were different degrees of decrease in spring,summer and autumn;there are different degrees of mutations in the four seasons precipitation.

关 键 词：降水量 变化趋势 气候倾向率 M-K检验 山西省典型区域 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]