农业科技创新、生态效率与农户增收质量的动态关系——基于面板向量自回归模型的实证分析  

Dynamic Relationship Between Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation,Eco-efficiency,and the Quality of Farmers' Income Increase:Empirical Analysis Based on Vector Autoregression(VAR) Model

作　　者：罗汉祥 彭慧灵 田婧 王战 陈放 Luo Hanxiang;Peng Huiling;Tian Jing;Wang Zhan;Chen Fang(College of Economics and Management,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China;College of Foreign Languages,Huazhong Agricultural University,Wuhan 430070,China)

机构地区：[1]华中农业大学经济管理学院,湖北武汉430070 [2]华中农业大学外国语学院,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《科技管理研究》2024年第6期214-221,共8页Science and Technology Management Research

基　　金：中非创新中心委托专项课题“非洲法语国家创新资源及科技政策研究”(464523021)。

摘　　要：农业科技创新在提高农产品产量和质量的同时也面临促进农户增收的困境,而生态效率的提高也可能造成农户收入不平等的问题。为进一步探究农业科技创新水平、生态效率与农户增收三者之间的关系,根据2000—2020年间湖南省的时间序列信息,利用面板向量自回归模型,采用协整检测、格兰杰检测、方差分解等各种手段,对农业科技创新水平、生态效率和农户增收质量间的相关性开展实证分析,以为处理好农业发展、农户收入和生态环境保护之间的关系提供理论参考。结果显示:农业科技创新与农户增收质量之间存在显著的双向正向关系,即科技创新在提升农业生产效率和质量的同时显著促进了农户的经济增长,但生态效率的提升在短期内未能显著转化为农户的经济收益;农业科技创新对农户增收质量的影响即时且显著,并随着时间推移而趋于稳定;在预测农户增收质量时,农业科技创新的作用明显超过生态效率。基于此,从长期规划生态效率提升、加大农业科技创新的支持与投资和增强农户生态环保意识等方面提出政策建议。Amid the global emphasis on sustainable agricultural development,exploring the interrelationships between agricultural technological innovation,ecological efficiency,and the quality of farmers' income growth is vital for advancing agricultural modernization and improving farmer welfare.However,while improving the yield and quality of agricultural products,agricultural science and technology innovation also faces the dilemma of increasing farmers 'income,and the improvement of ecological efficiency may also cause the problem of farmers' income inequality.In view of this,in order to further explore the relationship between the level of agricultural science and technology innovation,ecological efficiency,and farmers' income increase,this paper selects the agricultural sector of Hunan province from 2000 to 2020 as the research subject,and employs the VAR model as the primary analytical tool to investigate the long-term dynamics among these three key variables.Methodologically,the paper employs cointegration testing to determine the long-term stable relationships between variables,and uses Granger causality analysis to identify the directions and extents of influence among variables,and adopts variance decomposition to assess the contribution of each variable to the system's dynamics.The research data is derived from official statistics and surveys of Hunan province,which have been appropriately transformed and standardized for analysis.The findings indicate that after considering endogeneity and potential dynamic interactions between variables,there is a significant bidirectional positive relationship between agricultural technological innovation and the quality of farmers' income,suggesting that technological innovation is both a driving force behind and a result of improved income quality.However,the improvement of ecological efficiency has not been significantly transformed into the economic benefits of farmers in the short term,while the impact of agricultural science and technology innovation on the quality of f

关 键 词：农业科技创新 生态效率 农户收入 农户增收质量 面板向量自回归模型 农业可持续发展 

分 类 号：F124.3[经济管理—世界经济] F224.2[文化科学] G301