流域经济视域下的水路货运发展研究  

Research on the Development of Waterway Freight Transport from the Perspective of Basin Economy

作　　者：李泽楷 韩海燕 LI Zekai;HAN Haiyan(Department of Civil Engineering,The University of Hong Kong,Hong Kong 999077,China;Department of Investment and Insurance,Harbin Finance University,Harbin 150030,China)

机构地区：[1]香港大学土木工程系,中国香港999077 [2]哈尔滨金融学院投资保险系,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《物流科技》2024年第8期95-99,共5页Logistics Sci-Tech

基　　金：黑龙江省属本科高校基本科研业务费研究项目“‘龙江丝路带’背景下松花江流域经济发展战略研究”(2017-KY YWF-E0204)。

摘　　要：文章旨在探究流域经济背景下我国水路货运的发展态势,基于我国2013—2022年的水运货运量,使用灰色预测模型对我国的货运吞吐量进行预测,揭示未来一段时间内水路货运的发展趋势,并采用回归分析模型多角度分析影响我国水路货运量的关键因素。基于灰色预测模型和回归分析结果,文章提出了促进我国水路货运发展的策略建议,为政策制定者和业界提供决策建议支持,以优化水路货运系统,促进流域经济发展。The paper aims to explore the development trend of waterway freight transport in China under the background of basin economy.Based on the water freight volume of China from 2013 to 2022,this paper uses a grey prediction model to predict the freight throughput of China and reveal the development trend of water freight in the future.This paper also uses regression analysis models to analyze the key factors affecting China's waterway freight volume from multiple perspectives.Based on the grey prediction model and regression analysis results,this paper proposes strategic suggestions to promote the development of waterway freight transport in China.Its aims to provide decision recommendations and supports for policy makers and the industry to optimize waterway freight systems and promote basin economic development.

关 键 词：流域经济 水路货运 灰色预测 回归分析 

分 类 号：F259.27[经济管理—国民经济]