气候变化情景下茶角胸叶甲在中国的潜在适生区预测  

Distribution of Basilepta melanopus Lefèvre in China as Affected by Climatic Changes

作　　者：勒尔阿都 钟文玉 姜明鑫 胡海琴 冯艳 田丽娟 周子钦 孙威江 陈李林[2,3,4] LEER A-du;ZHONG Wen-yu;JIANG Ming-xin;HU Hai-qin;FENG Yan;TIAN Li-juan;ZHOU Zi-qin;SUN Wei-jiang;CHEN Li-lin(Anxi Tea College,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Quanzhou,Fujian 362406,China;State Key Laboratory of Ecological Pest Control in Fujian and Taiwan Crops,College of Plant Protection,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350002,China;Institute of China White Tea,Fuding,Fujian 355200,China;China Agricultural Technology Association Fujian Youxi Black Tea Science and Technology Courtyard,Youxi,Fujian 365199,China;College of Horticulture,Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University,Fuzhou,Fujian 350002,China)

机构地区：[1]福建农林大学安溪茶学院,福建泉州362406 [2]闽台作物有害生物生态防控国家重点实验室,福建农林大学植物保护学院,福建福州350002 [3]中国白茶研究院,福建福鼎355200 [4]中国农业专业技术协会尤溪红茶科技小院,福建尤溪365199 [5]福建农林大学园艺学院,福建福州350002

出　　处：《茶叶学报》2024年第1期1-10,共10页Acta Tea Sinica

基　　金：南平市科技特派员专项经费(N2023T011);中国白茶研究院开放课题项目(BCY2022K05);福建农林大学科技创新专项基金(CXZX2020128B);福建张天福发展基金会科技创新基金项目(FJZTG01);国家自然科学基金项目(31501650)。

摘　　要：【目的】研究当前及未来气候情景下茶树上重要的鞘翅目害虫茶角胸叶甲潜在适生区的变化,可为其监控和预警提供科学指导,有效防止其大范围扩散造成更大危害。【方法】通过搜集整理茶角胸叶甲在中国的分布点数据,利用MaxEnt模型预测其在中国当前及未来气候变化情景下的潜在适生区分布范围及适生程度。【结果】模型重复运行10次的平均AUC值为0.907,标准差为0.007,测试样本遗漏率与预测遗漏率基本吻合,预测效果表现为非常好。当前气候条件下,茶角胸叶甲的潜在适生区均主要集中在中国华南、华东、华中、西南大部分地区,总适生区面积为267.73万km^(2)。未来气候情景下沿当前适生区继续向北方扩张,最北扩散至黑龙江省,在2061—2080年SSP5_85情景下总适生区面积达到最大,为376.58万km^(2),占中国总面积的39.23%。影响茶角胸叶甲潜在适生区分布的主要环境变量是最干月份降水量、最湿月份降水量、最热月份最高温、温度变化方差。【结论】茶角胸叶甲当前在中国的潜在适生区模拟结果与其实际分布区域相符;未来气候变化情景下茶角胸叶甲在中国的潜在适生区呈明显扩张趋势,中国更多地区均有可能成为其适生区。【Objective】Crucial for early warning and effective control of an epidemic due to climatic changes,accurate forecast of potential spread of Basilepta melanopus Lefèvre in China was studied.【Method】Based on the existing databank on the B.melanopus population in China,applicability of the maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model to predict the regions conducive to the infestation,especially under the radical changes in climate,was examined.【Result】The average AUC on 10 repeated runs using the prediction model was 0.907 with a standard deviation of 0.007 and a test sample omission rate as predicted.According to the model,the regions prone to proliferation of B.melanopus at present were southwest,east,central,and south China of an area measured approximately 2677300 km^(2).In the foreseeable future,the boundary could move further northward to Heilongjiang Province.Under the SSP5_85 scenario for 2061-2080,the total area susceptible to the infestation could extend to 3765800 km^(2),an alarming 39.23%of the entire nation.Major environment variables affecting the spread of B.melanopus population included the precipitation in the driest and the wettest months,the peak temperature in the hottest month,and the variation coefficient of temperature in the regions.【Conclusion】The prediction on current B.melanopus distribution in China by the MaxEnt model agreed with actual observation.For the future,as the climate undergoes drastic changes,the mathematically extrapolated forecast could only be hoped to be accurate enough for planning effective countermeasures to combat the potentially wide-spread infestation.

关 键 词：茶角胸叶甲 气候变化 潜在适生区 最大熵模型 

分 类 号：S435.711[农业科学—农业昆虫与害虫防治]