海南岛天然橡胶产量和气候适宜度相关性研究  

Correlation between natural rubber yield and climate suitability in Hainan Island

作　　者：佟金鹤 张卫红 刘少军[1] 甘业星 TONG Jinhe;ZHANG Weihong;LIU Shaojun;GAN Yexing(Institute of Meteorological Science of Hainan Province/Key Laboratory of South China Sea Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Hainan Province,Haikou 570203,China;Institute of Meteorological Science in Hebei,Shijiazhuang 050022,China)

机构地区：[1]海南省气象科学研究所/海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室,海口570203 [2]河北省气象科学研究所,石家庄050022

出　　处：《生态科学》2024年第1期154-159,共6页Ecological Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41765007);海南省基础与应用基础研究计划(自然科学领域)高层次人才项目(2019RC359)。

摘　　要：使用气候适宜度指数方法对海南岛橡胶树气候适宜性进行评价,并选择去趋势互相关分析(DCCA)方法对橡胶树单产和气候适宜度进行相关性分析。结果表明:海南岛橡胶单产在东部和西部较低,最低值出现在文昌,为657.30kg·hm^(-2);最高值为三亚的1376.54kg·hm^(-2)。海南岛中部单产的变化幅度较小,其余地区单产均呈明显增加趋势,线性倾向率普遍超过10 kg·hm^(-2)·a^(-1)。海南岛中部和东部综合适宜度水平较高,适宜度指数超过0.70,西部适宜度水平较低,为0.39;温度和光照适宜度指数空间差异小,整体在0.80和0.70以上;降水适宜度指数在中部和东部较高,西部南部偏低,数值在0.42—0.77之间;风速适宜度在中部和南部超过0.75,在西部和北部适宜度指数偏低,最低达到0.18。DCCA分析结果显示,气候适宜度与橡胶单产存在明显的长程相关关系,降水和产量的相关性最高,风速相关性最低;空间上,东部相关性较低,西部、北部和和南部相关性稍高。The climate suitability index method was used to evaluate the climate suitability of rubber trees in Hainan Island,and the detrending cross-correlation analysis(DCCA)method was selected to analyze the correlation between rubber tree yield and climate suitability.The results showed that rubber tree yield in Hainan Island was lower in the east and west and the lowest value was 657.30 kg·hm^(-2) which appeared at Wenchang,and the highest value was 1376.54 kg·hm^(-2) in Sanya.Per unit area yield in the central part of Hainan Island had a small range of change,and in other areas showed a significant increase,with linear tendency rates generally exceeding 10 kg·hm^(-2)·a^(-1).The central and eastern parts of Hainan Island had a relatively high level of comprehensive suitability,with suitability indexes exceeding 0.70,and a lower suitability level of 0.39 in the west.The temperature and sunshine duration suitability indexes were generally above 0.80 and 0.70,which had small differences in spatial.Precipitation suitability was higher in the central and eastern parts,and was lower in the western and southern parts,overall range from 0.42 to 0.77.The wind speed suitability index was more than 0.75 in the central and southern parts,and was lower in the western and northern parts,with the lowest being 0.18.The results of DCCA analysis showed that there was an obvious long-range correlation between climate suitability and rubber tree yield.The correlation level between precipitation and yield was the highest,and the wind speed was the lowest.Spatially,the correlation in east was weak,and the correlation in the west,north and south was slightly stronger.

关 键 词：DCCA 天然橡胶产量 气候适宜度指数 

分 类 号：P464[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]