面向动车组修程修制优化的关键零部件寿命预测方法研究  

Research on the Life Prediction Method of Key Components for the Optimization of EMU Repair Class and Repair System

作　　者：何彬 贺婷婷 HE Bin;HE Tingting(CRRC Qingdao Sifang Locomotive&Rolling Stock Co.,Ltd.,Qingdao 266111,China)

机构地区：[1]中车青岛四方机车车辆股份有限公司,山东青岛266111

出　　处：《铁道车辆》2024年第2期7-10,共4页Rolling Stock

摘　　要：动车组作为一种高度复杂的交通运输工具,其关键零部件的可靠性直接关系到列车的安全运行。这些零部件在长时间的服役过程中,会受到各种因素的影响,如机械磨损、疲劳损伤等,从而导致其性能逐渐下降。因此,对这些零部件进行精准的寿命预测与管理,是确保动车组安全、高效运行的关键。列车寿命预测研究领域很多学者从确定性疲劳寿命和不确定性疲劳寿命进行预测,近年来针对飞机、船舶等高端装备领域的寿命预测研究越来越多,分别从力学、统计、检测技术等多领域基础理论对寿命预测进行研究。文章以动车组关键零部件为研究对象,融合车辆运行状态、检修运维等数据,引入数据挖掘技术能力,构建基于修程修制的关键零部件寿命预测方法,精准预测零部件剩余寿命周期,同时利用数字化手段动态监控其剩余寿命,为检修运维、备件管理精准决策提供数据支撑,为车辆安全运行提供基础保障,进而为铁路局有效降低列车运行成本提供决策依据。The EMU is a highly complex transportation tool,and the reliability of its key parts is directly related to the safe operation of the train.These parts will be affected by various factors,such as mechanical wear and fatigue damage in the course of a long period of service,which will lead to a gradual decline in their performance.Therefore,accurate life prediction and management of these parts is the key to ensuring the safe and efficient operation of EMUs.In the field of train life prediction research,many scholars predict from deterministic fatigue life and uncertainty fatigue life.In recent years,there are more and more life prediction researches in the field of high-end equipment such as airplanes,ships,etc.,and the life prediction is researched from the basic theories of multiple fields such as mechanics,statistics,and detection technology respectively.This article takes the key parts of the EMU as the research object,integrates data such as vehicle operation status and maintenance and operation,introduces data mining technology,builds a key part life prediction method based on the repair class and repair system to accurately predict the remaining service life of the parts,and uses digital means to dynamically monitor their remaining life,provides data support for accurate decision-making in maintenance and operation,spare part management,provides a basic guarantee for safe vehicle operation and decision-making basis for the railway bureau to effectively reduce the cost of train operation.

关 键 词：动车组 修程修制 寿命预测 关键零部件 组成件 

分 类 号：U279.3[机械工程—车辆工程]