区域贸易政策不确定性、策略选择与中国多产品企业出口产品种类——基于中国-东盟《框架协议》的准自然实验  

Regional Trade Policy Uncertainty,Strategic Selection and Export Variety of Chinese Multi-Product Firms:A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on the China-ASEAN Framework Agreement

作　　者：孙林[1,2] 陈霜 吕雅洁 Sun Lin;Chen Shuang;Lv Yajie

机构地区：[1]浙江工业大学经济学院,浙江省杭州市310023 [2]浙江工业大学现代化产业体系研究院,浙江省杭州市310023 [3]中共嘉善县委党校

出　　处：《南方经济》2024年第4期54-73,共20页South China Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“RCEP协定对中国外贸生产企业高质量发展的影响机制与路径优化研究”(22BJY011);浙江工业大学现代化产业体系研究院(浙江省社科重点研究基地)重点课题“数字化转型对中国制造业外贸企业全球价值链升级的影响”(2023CYZD04)资助。

摘　　要：多产品企业产品种类调整有助于实现企业内资源优化配置。文章匹配2001—2013年中国工业企业数据、海关进出口产品数据与WITS关税数据,以中国-东盟《框架协议》签署作为准自然实验,通过双重差分的方法探究区域贸易政策不确定性对中国多产品企业出口产品种类的影响。实证结果表明,《框架协议》签署带来的区域贸易政策不确定性下降促使中国多产品企业显著增加出口产品种类,与Bernard et al.(2011)基于美加自由贸易区的研究结果形成了鲜明对比,主要原因在于东盟市场与北美市场的规模、产品结构等方面存在显著差异。此外,区域贸易政策不确定性下降对采取不同竞争策略的多产品企业出口种类的影响存在显著差异,采取质量竞争策略的多产品企业比采取数量竞争策略的多产品企业在《框架协议》签署的外生冲击下,增加更多的出口产品种类。此外,《框架协议》签署对区域贸易政策不确定性下降幅度更大的多产品企业出口产品种类的促进作用更加明显。进一步,《框架协议》签署带来的区域贸易政策不确定性下降对多产品企业出口产品种类增加的影响主要通过创新效应发生作用,而学习效应没有显著的作用。以上结论在稳健性检验中仍然成立。该研究为中国实施FTA战略、评估RCEP政策,以及理解中国制造业企业的出口多样化和企业内产品组合决策提供了新的视角。China has entered a period of high trade policy uncertainty.To prevent and resolve trade policy uncertainty,it is necessary to clarify the sources and current situation of trade policy uncertainty.The Free Trade Agreement strategy imple-mented by China provides excellent conditions for reverse and in-depth analysis of the impact of trade policy uncertainty on the export behavior of multi-product firms.Compared with the WTO,Regional Free Trade Agreements have the characteris-tics of small trade scope,flexible negotiation,and high trade concentration.In the context of the obstruction of free trade in the WTO,cross-border regional cooperation is playing an increasingly important role.The adjustment of product variety in multi-product firms helps to optimize the allocation of resources within the firms.Matching Chinese industrial firm data,cus-toms import and export product data,and WITS tariff data from 2001 to 2013,using the signing of the China-ASEAN Frame-work Agreement as a quasi-natural experiment,our paper explores the impact of regional trade policy uncertainty on the vari-ety of export products of Chinese multi-product firms through Difference in Difference Method.The study finds that the decrease in regional trade policy uncertainty brought about by the signing of the Framework Agreement has prompted Chinese multi-product firms to significantly increase the variety of export products,which is in stark contrast to the results based on the US-Canada Free Trade Area by Bernard et al.(2011).The main reason is that there are significant differences in the size and product structure of the ASEAN market and the North American market.In addi-tion,there is a significant difference in the impact of the decrease in regional trade policy uncertainty on the export variety of multi-product firms that adopt different competitive strategies.Multi-product firms that adopt quality-sorting strategies in-crease their export product variety compared to multi-product firms that adopt efficiency-sorting strategies under the exog-

关 键 词：区域贸易政策不确定性 产品种类 策略选择 多产品企业 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]