出口放缓与国内市场一体化:基于1999—2019年中国商品市场的研究  

Export Slowdown and Domestic Market Integration:Evidence from the Commodity Market of China between 1999 and 2019

作　　者：刘子琦 罗长远[2] Liu Ziqi;Luo Changyuan

机构地区：[1]上海对外经贸大学国际经贸学院 [2]复旦大学世界经济研究所,上海市200433

出　　处：《南方经济》2024年第4期94-107,共14页South China Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“全球产业链重构对全球经济治理体系的影响及中国应对研究”(21&ZD075);国家社会科学基金哲学社会科学领军人才项目“美国对华出口管制的演进、动因与应对研究”(22VRC154)的资助。

摘　　要：出口放缓这一现象开始于2008年金融危机,受全球经济低迷和外部需求紧缩的冲击,中国进入了出口放缓的阶段。随着中美“脱钩”愈演愈烈,叠加紧张的国际地缘政治局势,未来中国出口贸易下行的压力依然较大。中国出口放缓的经济效应值得关注。文章以商品市场为例,利用1999—2019年省级出口贸易和商品价格数据,考察了中国出口放缓对国内市场一体化的影响。为了缓解可能存在的内生性问题,文章采用两阶段最小二乘法(2SLS),估计结果发现,出口放缓会倒逼和加快地区间市场一体化的进程。在采用更换解释变量、缩尾处理、长差分检验和更换工具变量等方法后,文章的结果保持稳健。异质性分析的结果表明,这一效应尤其表现在沿海、加工贸易占比高和国有经济占比低的省份。文章还使用省份铁路货运量数据进行拓展性分析,结果显示,在一省的出口放缓后,其省内,以及它与其他省份间的铁路货运量均显著增加。文章的研究结果表明,构建统一开放和竞争有序的全国大市场是中国出口放缓后经济发展的内在要求,各地要顺势而为,破除行政边界对经济活动的束缚,为盘活国内循环创造有利条件。External circulation has played an important role in economic growth in China for a long time,especially after join-ing the WTO.However,the financial crisis in 2008 has profoundly changed the global environment.With sluggish global growth and weakened consumer demand,China’s export growth has slowed down since 2008,and it even experienced nega-tive growth in the years 2015 and 2016.As the“decoupling”between China and the United States intensifies,coupled with heightened international geopolitical tensions,the pressure for a future decline in China's exports remains significant.The economic impacts of export slowdown in China deserve attention.This paper examines the impacts of export slowdown on domestic market integration using provincial panel data from 1999 to 2019 in China.In order to mitigate potential endogeneity concerns,this paper adopts a two-stage least squares(2SLS)approach.The results show that the slowdown in export will push and accelerate the process of market integration be-tween regions,and the construction of a unified national large market is a long process.This effect is especially manifested in coastal provinces,provinces with a high proportion of processing trade and a low proportion of state-owned economy.The ex-tended analysis also finds that rail freight volumes within a province and between provinces will increase significantly after ex-port decline in a province.This implies that regional market integration will be fostered.The results of this paper demonstrate that China needs to move toward structural adjustment and a balance between domestic and external demand.Building a uni-fied,open,and orderly competitive domestic market is an inherent requirement when the export slows down in China.

关 键 词：出口放缓 双循环 市场一体化 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济]